Government IT Services & Systems Integrators
Defense  Demand vs supply & the price of exposure · unit of demand: gov IT contract backlog ($)
LDOSBAHSAICCACI
V2 · factsJun 2026
Sector scan: Defense Group-level demand/supply Updated Jun 2, 2026 Facts only · no recommendation
Snapshot Product Demand Supply The gap The players The price Deep-dive next Sources

Snapshot

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Snapshot

Government IT services contractors build, run, and modernize the information-technology systems that U.S. federal agencies and the military depend on — networks, applications, cloud migrations, cybersecurity, and AI/ML platforms. The four largest pure-play public companies — Leidos (LDOS), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), SAIC, and CACI — collectively reported ~$45B in trailing-twelve-month revenue and carried ~$142B in total contract backlog as of their most recent quarterly filings (spring 2026).

~$142B
Combined total backlog, 4 companies
$66.1B
DoD FY2026 IT & cyber budget request
$14.3B
FY2026 federal cybersecurity allocation
~$45B
Combined TTM revenue, 4 companies
Government agencies contract out IT work to cleared integrators on multi-year deals because they lack the internal capability to build and run modern systems. Backlog (signed contracts awaiting execution) is the leading revenue indicator. All four companies grew backlog YoY in their most recent filings. AI, cloud, and cyber mandates are adding new contract volume; DOGE-driven cancellations have concentrated in civilian consulting, DEI, and foreign-aid contracts rather than core defense IT.

The product & how money is made

These companies sell labor hours and project deliverables to U.S. government customers — primarily the Department of Defense, the intelligence community (CIA, NSA, NGA, DIA), and civilian agencies (NASA, DHS, VA, State Department). The deliverable is a bundle: cleared personnel (employees holding security clearances to access classified systems), software development, systems integration (connecting disparate agency IT systems), cloud migration, cybersecurity operations, and AI/ML deployment.

Contract types determine margin structure. Cost-plus contracts reimburse actual costs plus a negotiated fee — low risk, thin margins (6-8% operating). Fixed-price contracts pay a set amount regardless of actual cost — higher margins (10-15%+) but exposure to overruns. Time-and-materials (T&M) contracts bill hourly at a negotiated rate. Most government IT work is cost-plus or T&M, which is why group EBITDA margins cluster around 8-12%.

Backlog is the central metric. Funded backlog = Congress appropriated the money and the agency obligated it (most certain near-term revenue). Unfunded backlog = authorized work where funds have not yet been obligated (typically out-year option periods). Priced options = exercisable at the government's discretion. Total backlog = funded + unfunded + priced options.

Cash conversion is strong because the businesses are asset-light — the main cost is payroll. Capex runs 1-2% of revenue. FCF margins are typically 5-8%. The government pays reliably, though DSO (days sales outstanding) runs 50-65 days and can spike during continuing resolutions.

Demand

Contracted (in backlog today)

CompanyAs ofTotal BacklogFundedUnfunded + OptionsYoY
LDOSApr 3, 2026$48.4B$9.6B$38.8B+11%
BAHMar 31, 2026$38.0B$4.0B$34.0B+3%
SAICMay 1, 2026$22.9B$3.7B$19.1B+5%
CACIMar 31, 2026$33.4B$5.0B~$28.4B+6%

Leidos 8-K (May 5, 2026); BAH FY2026 press release (May 22, 2026); SAIC Q1 FY2027 press release (Jun 1, 2026); CACI Q3 FY2026 press release (Apr 22, 2026).

Leidos grew fastest (+11%) to $48.4B, roughly 2.8x annual revenue. CACI's 9-month bookings of $8.6B against $6.9B revenue yielded a 1.25x book-to-bill. SAIC's TTM book-to-bill was 1.0x. BAH's was 1.1x.

Forecast (government budget direction)

DoD budget figures are from the published request via fedcon.com. DOGE cancellation totals are third-party estimates, not official government tallies.

Supply

Capacity: the cleared workforce

The binding constraint is security clearances. A Secret clearance takes 3-6 months to process; Top Secret/SCI takes 8-24 months. The four companies employ ~127,000 people combined (LDOS ~47,000; BAH 31,500; CACI ~25,000; SAIC 23,000).

LDOS 10-K (Dec 2025); BAH 10-K (Mar 2026); SAIC 10-K (Jan 2026); CACI per stockanalysis.com.

BAH headcount fell 12% YoY from 35,800 to 31,500, reflecting a shift from staffing-heavy work toward AI/analytics. LDOS was flat at ~47,000. SAIC declined from 24,000 to 23,000.

Bottlenecks

The gap

All four companies increased backlog YoY despite DOGE civilian contract cancellations — defense/intel/AI awards more than offset losses. Leidos added $4.8B to backlog in one year. CACI's 9-month bookings ran 25% ahead of revenue.

The mix is shifting: legacy body-shop contracts are being cut or consolidated, while AI, cloud, and cybersecurity contracts grow. BAH cut 4,300 employees while maintaining $38B backlog — fewer people, same contract volume.

Margin trends: CACI EBITDA margin rose from 11.1% to 12.3% YoY. SAIC guided FY2027 margins to 10.1-10.3%, up from 9.7%. BAH held adjusted EBITDA margin at 11.1% despite -6.4% revenue.

The players

MetricLDOSBAHSAICCACI
Market cap$15.6B$9.4B$4.9B$11.7B
Enterprise value$22.2B$12.8B$7.4B$17.1B
TTM revenue$17.3B$11.2B$7.3B$9.2B
Revenue growth+3.7%-6.4%+1.5%+8.5%
Total backlog$48.4B$38.0B$22.9B$33.4B
Backlog / revenue2.8x3.4x3.1x3.6x
Funded backlog$9.6B$4.0B$3.7B$5.0B
TTM book-to-bill1.1x1.1x1.0x~1.25x
EBITDA margin13.9%11.2%10.1%12.1%
TTM free cash flow$1.19B$951M$577M~$670M est.
FCF yield7.6%10.1%11.8%5.7%
Total debt$6.9B$4.1B$2.7B$5.6B
Net debt / EBITDA2.7x2.7x3.5x4.9x
Goodwill$8.1B$2.4B$2.9B$6.5B
Employees~47K31.5K23K~25K
Trailing P/E11.4x11.4x12.9x21.8x
Forward P/E est.9.5x11.4x10.5x17.0x
EV/EBITDA9.2x10.2x10.0x15.5x
Dividend yield1.4%3.0%1.3%None
52-wk range$121-$206$69-$120$81-$123$422-$684

Market data: yfinance, Jun 2, 2026. Financials: most recent quarterly filings.

Differentiation

The price of exposure

LDOS and BAH share an 11.4x trailing P/E. LDOS trades at a lower forward P/E (9.5x vs. 11.4x) reflecting higher guided earnings growth. SAIC has the highest FCF yield (11.8%) paired with contracting revenue. CACI trades at ~2x the group's P/E, reflecting its faster growth and ARKA acquisition. est. for forward P/E figures, which derive from analyst consensus.

Tangible book value is negative for the group. Goodwill is 34-56% of total assets, reflecting decades of M&A. The relevant floor analysis is FCF durability, not asset liquidation.

Backlog conversion arithmetic: LDOS's $48.4B backlog converts at ~$17B/yr (1/2.8th per year). At ~7% FCF margin, that backlog alone implies ~$3.4B cumulative FCF over 2.8 years -- 22% of market cap. BAH's $38B at ~$0.95B/yr FCF implies ~$3.2B over 3.4 years -- 34% of market cap. SAIC's $22.9B at ~$0.58B/yr implies ~$1.8B over 3.1 years -- 37% of market cap.

Capital return: SAIC spent $422M on buybacks in FY2026 (8.6% of current market cap). BAH deployed $1.1B in total returns in FY2026. LDOS yields 1.4% and growing. CACI pays no dividend, buys back shares.

What to deep-dive next

Sources & confidence

Data pointSourceTag
LDOS Q1 2026: backlog $48.4B, financials, guidanceLeidos 8-K, May 5, 2026Filing
BAH FY2026: backlog $38B, financials, FY2027 guidanceBAH press release, May 22, 2026Filing
BAH backlog breakdown (funded/unfunded/options)BAH Q1 FY2026 10-Q via finsee.aiFiling
SAIC Q1 FY2027: backlog $22.9B, financials, guidanceSAIC press release, Jun 1, 2026Filing
CACI Q3 FY2026: backlog $33.4B, financials, guidanceCACI press release, Apr 22, 2026Filing
DoD FY2026: IT $66.1B, cyber $14.3B, AI $13.4B, cloud $3BDoD budget request via fedcon.comBudget
DOGE: ~13K contracts, ~$61B notional, 60%+ small businessfedcon.com analysis, 2026est.
Clearance demand +12% YoYClearanceJobs 2024 surveyest.
TS/SCI wage premium 20-25%Dice 2024 compensation analysisest.
Employee counts10-K filings; stockanalysis.comFiling
Market prices, multiples, yieldsyfinance, Jun 2, 2026Live
Forward P/E figuresAnalyst consensus via yfinanceest.
CACI TTM FCF (~$670M)Derived from quarterly filingsest.