Snapshot

Global graphite consumption reached roughly 5.7 million tonnes in 2024 across two forms: natural graphite (~1.6 million tonnes/year mined) and synthetic graphite (~4 million tonnes/year manufactured from petroleum coke). est. Of that total, 47% went into battery anodes (lithium-ion cells for EVs, grid storage, and UPS systems), 23% into electrodes for electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking, and the remainder into refractories, foundries, and specialty products. China controls ~79% of natural graphite mining and ~95% of anode-material processing. China imposed export permit requirements on natural and synthetic graphite in December 2023.

Three listed companies offer exposure: GrafTech (NYSE: EAF) makes synthetic graphite electrodes for steelmaking; SGL Carbon (Frankfurt: SGL / OTC: SGLFF) makes specialty graphite for semiconductors, automotive, and nuclear reactors; Nouveau Monde Graphite (TSX: NOU / NYSE: NMG) is building a natural graphite mine and anode-material plant in Quebec.

The product & how money is made

Graphite products fall into three commercially distinct categories:

1. Synthetic graphite electrodes (GrafTech's business)

Petroleum coke is heated to ~3,000°C in Acheson furnaces over several weeks, consuming ~2,000 kWh of electricity per tonne est., then machined into cylindrical electrodes 600–800 mm in diameter. These electrodes conduct the electric arc that melts scrap steel in EAF steelmaking, consuming ~2.1 kg of electrode per tonne of steel produced. est. Electrodes erode and must be replaced continuously. GrafTech's realized price in Q1 2026 was ~$3,900/MT, down from ~$4,100/MT a year earlier.

2. Specialty graphite products (SGL Carbon's business)

SGL produces fine-grain graphite, flexible graphite, and carbon fiber composites for semiconductor manufacturing (graphite crucibles for silicon carbide wafer growth), automotive (brake discs, battery components), aerospace, and nuclear energy (graphite moderators for high-temperature reactors). The Graphite Solutions segment generated €539M in revenue in 2024 at a 24.3% adjusted EBITDA margin. SGL signed a 10-year supply agreement with X-energy in January 2026 (initial tranche valued at >$100M) to produce NBG-18 graphite components for Xe-100 small modular reactors.

3. Natural graphite mining & anode material (NMG's planned business)

Natural graphite is mined from open-pit deposits, concentrated via flotation, then purified and shaped into spherical graphite for battery anodes. Every lithium-ion battery cell uses more graphite by weight than any other material (~1 kg of graphite per kWh of battery capacity). est. NMG is building the Matawinie mine in Quebec targeting ~106,000 tonnes/year of graphite concentrate, with an integrated anode-material plant at Bécancour. NMG is pre-revenue; first production is expected by end of 2028.

Demand

Contracted / committed

• GrafTech: ~85% of anticipated 2026 sales volume is committed in the order book. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for a 5–10% volume increase over FY 2025's 109,200 MT, implying ~115,000–120,000 MT. contracted
• SGL Carbon: The X-energy nuclear graphite contract is a 10-year framework; the initial 3-year phase is valued at >$100M. SGL confirmed its FY 2025 EBITDA guidance of €130–150M despite a 17% revenue decline. contracted
• NMG: 75% of Matawinie's planned 106,000 t/year output is committed via offtake agreements, including a 7-year Canadian government offtake for 30,000 t/year at a fixed North American price with upside-sharing. An additional 15% is under negotiation with Eni. contracted

Forecast demand drivers

• Battery anodes (biggest driver): Battery-grade graphite accounted for 47% of global graphite consumption in 2024. Industry estimates project graphite demand could increase 3–7× by 2040, driven by EV battery and grid-storage buildout. Battery demand alone could reach 80% of total graphite consumption. est.
• EAF steelmaking: The graphite electrode market was 1.72 million tonnes in 2025 est., forecast to reach 2.13 million tonnes by 2031 (3.6% CAGR). est. Growth comes from scrap-based steel displacing blast furnaces, plus hydrogen DRI-EAF hybrids that consume ~one-third more electrode per tonne of steel. est.
• Nuclear graphite: X-energy's pipeline targets 11 GW of Xe-100 SMR capacity. Each reactor requires graphite moderator blocks. Other advanced reactor designs (molten salt, pebble-bed) also use graphite. Volumes are small relative to battery/electrode markets. est.
• Semiconductor: Graphite crucibles and susceptors are used in SiC wafer production. SGL's semiconductor/LED revenue fell sharply (€78.4M vs €141.8M in H1 2025 vs H1 2024) due to customer destocking. The structural buildout of SiC for power electronics (EVs, data centers) has not yet reversed this. est.

Supply

Natural graphite mine production (2024)

Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries via World Population Review (2024 data).

Synthetic graphite electrode capacity

Source: Mordor Intelligence, GrafTech Q1 2026 earnings release, company filings.

Key bottleneck: processing, not mining

Multiple African and Canadian natural graphite deposits exist. The bottleneck is processing: purifying flake graphite to 99.95%+ purity and shaping it into spherical graphite for battery anodes. China controls ~95% of this processing step. Outside China, no commercial-scale anode-material plant operates today. NMG's Bécancour plant would be among the first Western facilities if completed. For synthetic graphite electrodes, the bottleneck is needle coke (a petroleum refinery byproduct): price spikes in needle coke can raise electrode production costs by 20%+ and are outside producers' control. est.

China's graphite export permit requirements (imposed December 2023, tightened in 2024) cover both natural flake graphite and synthetic graphite products. Chinese exports continue to flow under permits, but the mechanism for supply disruption is established.

The gap

Battery-grade graphite: Demand is growing faster than non-Chinese supply can respond. Current ex-China mine production is ~350,000 t/year of natural graphite, and virtually none of it is processed into battery-grade anode material outside China. NMG's Matawinie mine, if built on schedule, would add 106,000 t/year of concentrate by end-2028 — meaningful but small relative to the millions of tonnes the battery industry will consume at projected EV adoption rates. est.

Graphite electrodes: The market has the opposite condition — oversupply. GrafTech's CEO stated in Q1 2026 that a "supply-side imbalance, driven by overcapacity built in both China and India" is keeping electrode pricing "unsustainably weak." GrafTech's realized price fell to ~$3,900/MT, below its cash cost of production ($3,848/MT in Q1 2026). The company ran at 63–65% capacity utilization. Trade case filings in the US and Brazil could change the dynamic if tariffs are imposed on Chinese/Indian imports.

Specialty graphite: Niche markets (nuclear, semiconductor) are supply-tight for qualified material. SGL's X-energy contract shows qualified nuclear-grade graphite producers securing long-term contracts with >$100M commitments. Volumes are small relative to the overall graphite market.

The players

The price of exposure

GrafTech (EAF) — $9.92/share

Market cap ~$258M. Gross debt $1,125M (no material maturities until December 2029). Enterprise value roughly $1,265M ($258M equity + $1,125M debt - $120M cash). FY 2025 revenue $504M; adjusted EBITDA -$9M. Cash burn was $115M in FY 2025 (adjusted free cash flow). At that burn rate, $120M cash + $200M undrawn credit facilities gives roughly 2.5 years of runway. 2026 guidance: 5–10% volume growth, planned price increases of $600–1,200/MT on uncommitted volume, low-single-digit cost reductions. Stockholders' deficit is -$305M (liabilities exceed assets net of goodwill). The equity sits behind $1.1B of senior debt. A 1-for-10 reverse stock split was executed in August 2025.

SGL Carbon (SGLFF) — $5.46/share (OTC)

Market cap ~$765M. Net financial debt €99M (0.7x adjusted EBITDA). FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA €135M on €850M revenue (15.9% margin). Free cash flow €37M. Equity ratio 39.2%, no critical maturities. The GAAP net loss of -€79M was driven by €93M of one-time restructuring charges, not operating losses. Trades on Frankfurt as SGL and as an unsponsored ADR (SGLFF) with thin US volume. BMW (18.4%) and SKion GmbH (27.5%) are strategic anchor shareholders. Graphite Solutions generated €539M in FY 2024 revenue at 24.3% EBITDA margin, but H1 2025 dropped to €221M (-22% YoY) on semiconductor customer destocking.

Nouveau Monde Graphite (NMG) — $1.80/share

Market cap ~$600M. Pre-revenue, burning ~$5.2M/month (H1 2025 rate). Cash $73.5M as of June 30, 2025; total financing raised through early 2026 was ~$644.5M (equity placements from Canada Growth Fund, Investissement Quebec, Eni, plus debt from Export Development Canada and Canada Infrastructure Bank). Combined Matawinie mine + Bécancour anode plant capex estimated at CAD ~$634M. Construction started May 2026; commercial production targeted end of 2028 (24 months construction + 6 months commissioning). Planned capacity 106,000 t/year with 75%+ offtake committed; mine life 25+ years. Revenue zero until 2028–2029 at earliest. 52-week range $1.60–$6.06.

What to deep-dive next

• GrafTech debt covenants and refinancing risk: $1,125M of debt on negative EBITDA — what are the covenants, what triggers acceleration, and what happens at the December 2029 maturity if the company hasn't returned to profitability?
• GrafTech trade case outcomes: Trade cases filed in the US and Brazil against Chinese/Indian electrode imports. If successful, tariffs could substantially improve pricing. Track case timelines and preliminary rulings.
• NMG execution risk: Probability that Matawinie is built on time and budget. Compare to other greenfield graphite projects (e.g., Syrah Resources' Vidalia plant delays). Is offtake pricing above or below Chinese spot?
• SGL Carbon's nuclear graphite pipeline: The X-energy contract is >$100M over 3 years. How large could nuclear graphite become across the full Xe-100 pipeline (11 GW) and other reactor designs? Who competes for nuclear-grade graphite?
• China export control escalation scenarios: What happens to ex-China graphite pricing if China restricts or halts anode-material exports? Who benefits most — NMG, SGL, or GrafTech?
• Needle coke pricing: GrafTech's cost structure depends on petroleum needle coke. GrafTech owns a needle coke operation at Seadrift, Texas — how much of their needs does it cover?

Sources & confidence