World's largest private-sector coal company. AGI Score 7. P/TB 1.17. Thermal + metallurgical coal. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Peabody is the world's largest private coal producer, operating 16 mines in the US and Australia. Two distinct businesses: thermal coal (electricity generation) and metallurgical coal (steelmaking). The AGI angle is surprising: data center power demand is so massive that even coal plants are being kept online and restarted. BTU went from $9.61 (52-week low) to $34.64 — already a 3.6x move. The question: has the AGI-driven power demand re-rating already happened, or is there more upside?
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | EPS | OCF | Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | $2.88B | -$1.87B | -$18.99 | -$10M | 97.7M |
| FY2021 | $3.32B | $371M | $3.00 | $420M | 111.1M |
| FY2022 | $4.98B | $1.32B | $8.29 | $1.17B | 142.1M |
| FY2023 | $4.95B | $816M | $5.00 | $1.04B | 137.6M |
| FY2024 | $4.24B | $404M | $2.73 | $607M | 125.1M |
| FY2025 | $3.86B | -$43M | -$0.43 | $334M | 121.8M |
| Item | FY2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $5.81B | |
| PP&E (mines) | $3.15B | 54% of assets |
| Cash | $575M | |
| Long-Term Debt | $321M | Very manageable |
| Total Debt | $460M | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $3.58B | Book/share: $29.08 |
| Net Cash | $115M | Cash minus total debt |
Shares have been declining: 142M (2022) to 122M (2025) — 14% buyback. Modest but positive.
Global coal demand persists or grows as AGI data centers consume power. Thermal coal prices stay elevated. Met coal demand grows with infrastructure buildout (steel for data centers). Revenue recovers to $5B+, net income $1B+. On 120M shares at 8x P/E: $67-83/share. With further buybacks to 90M shares: $89-111.
Maximum optimism: coal becomes "strategic energy asset," P/E re-rates to 12x, shares to 80M, EPS $12 = $144. Still only ~4x from here.
Bull case target: $346/share. Entry for 10x: ~$35. Current price is $34.64 — at the entry level, but this target is unrealistic for coal.
Coal is a structurally declining industry in developed markets. Environmental regulations tighten. FY2025 was already net income negative. Previous bankruptcy (2016). Mine reclamation liabilities. Floor is probably $15-20 (0.5x book).
BTU has already had its re-rating (3.6x from 52-week low). The stock is near book value with manageable debt. But coal is a terminal industry — the question is how slowly it dies. The 10x math does not work for coal. This is a 2-3x play at best if coal prices spike again. The AGI-driven power demand narrative is real but coal will lose market share to gas, nuclear, and solar over 10 years. Not a 10x candidate.
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1064728), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.