Defense IT and intelligence services. 97% US government revenue. $8.6B revenue, 25x P/E. AI-enabled defense modernization beneficiary. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
CACI is a defense IT services company providing technology solutions to US defense, intelligence, and federal agencies. 97% of revenue comes from the US government. Revenue has grown from $6.2B (FY2022) to $8.6B (FY2025) — a 39% increase in 3 years. The company benefits directly from AI-driven defense modernization: cyber operations, AI/ML solutions, electronic warfare, and C3I systems. AGI score of 8 reflects the demand surge for AI capabilities in national security. $5B in goodwill on an $8.7B balance sheet — intangible-heavy, meaning tangible book is negative.
CACI provides IT solutions and services to the US defense and intelligence community. ~25,000 employees, most with security clearances. Fiscal year ends June 30.
| Revenue (FY2025, ending June 30) | $8.63B |
| Net Income | $500M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $553M |
| Backlog | ~$32B |
| Revenue growth (3yr CAGR) | ~12% |
| Government revenue % | 97% |
| Goodwill | $5.02B (58% of total assets) |
| Tangible Book Value | -$2.22B (negative) |
Security clearances take 6-18 months to obtain and require US citizenship. CACI's 25,000 cleared employees represent a massive barrier to entry. New competitors cannot simply hire away this workforce — there aren't enough cleared workers.
Incumbent advantage: Government contracts are sticky. Once a contractor is embedded in a program, switching costs are enormous (training, re-certification, program knowledge). CACI has decades-long relationships with DoD and intelligence agencies.
Classified environments: Many CACI programs operate at TS/SCI level. Competitors cannot even bid without existing clearances, facilities, and program access.
Defense spending on AI, cyber, and autonomous systems is accelerating. The DoD's shift to software-defined platforms directly benefits CACI's core competencies. CACI is already integrating AI/ML into intelligence analysis, cyber operations, and electronic warfare systems. The question is whether AGI ultimately replaces the human analysts that CACI bills at high hourly rates — or whether it amplifies their productivity (higher margin per employee).
Stockholders' Equity (latest): $3.89B
Less Goodwill: $-5.02B
Less Intangible Assets: $-1.09B
Tangible Book Value: $-2.22B
P/TB: N/A (negative tangible book)
P/B (including intangibles): 3.24x
Share count change (earliest to latest available): -11.3%. Shares are declining via buybacks — value-accretive for shareholders.
| Demand Boost | 8/10 |
| Margin Expansion | 6/10 |
| Strategic Assets | 7/10 |
| Disruption Risk | 4/10 |
| Innovation Risk | 3/10 |
| Category | ai_enabler |
| Confidence | high |
CACI is a major AGI beneficiary. First, demand for the company's core offerings (cyber defense, AI/ML solutions, intelligence analysis, C3I systems, electronic warfare) explodes as the U.S. government races to deploy AGI for national security and counter adversary AGI capabilities. Defense spending on AI, cyber, and spectrum superiority will surge. Second, CACI builds tools and systems that AGI itself uses (data platforms, network modernization, secure comms), making the company an 'AI enabler.' Third, margin expansion is significant: CACI can automate software development, data analysis, and engineering tasks, reducing labor costs while maintaining pricing power (government contracts are cost-plus or fixed-price with negotiated margins; savings may be retained). Strategic assets: security clearances, deep customer relationships, and domain expertise in classified environments are hard to replicate. Disruption risk is low: the government will always need trusted contractors for sensitive work, and CACI's incumbent position is valuable. Innovation risk is minimal: physical infrastructure (signals intelligence, EW systems) takes years to deploy. Net strongly positive.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $13.4B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 26.0x | Expensive |
| P/Tangible Book | N/A | Negative tangible book |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.8x | |
| Dividend Yield | 0% | |
| 52-Week Range | $356.77 - $683.50 | Current: $606.72 (mid-range) |
| Beta | 0.58 | Low volatility |
| ROE | 13.2% |
The largest defense contractor (Lockheed Martin) is worth ~$120B. CACI at $134B would exceed every defense company except possibly RTX. This requires CACI to transform from a $8.6B revenue services company to something fundamentally different.
Can defense IT services scale? Unlike software companies, services companies scale linearly with headcount. To grow revenue 5-10x, CACI would need to either (a) hire 5-10x more cleared workers (not available), or (b) shift to product/software revenue with higher margins and scalability.
The AI defense pivot: If CACI successfully transitions from human-intensive services to AI-powered platforms (selling software, not hours), margins could expand from ~6% to 20%+. At $15B revenue and 20% net margin = $3B net income. At 30x P/E = $90B. Per share (assuming some buyback to ~18M shares) = $5,000. That's 8.2x. Close but requires a complete business model transformation.
10x Entry Price: ~$61/share. This would be ~0.15x revenue, which implies severe financial distress (government spending cuts + loss of major contracts).
Verdict: CACI is a 2-3x play at current prices. Revenue growth is strong (12% CAGR), government spending on AI/cyber is increasing, and the cleared workforce is a real moat. But 10x requires a business model transformation that is speculative. Buy on defense spending scare dips.
CACI (CACI International) — AGI Score 8/10. Trading at $606.72 (negative tangible book, 26.0x P/E).
Key strengths: CACI is a major AGI beneficiary. First, demand for the company's core offerings (cyber defense, AI/ML solutions, intelligence analysis, C3I systems, electronic warfare) explodes as the U.S. government...
To go deeper, we need:
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 16058), yfinance, 10-K filing, AGI scoring framework. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.