Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI/HPC data center hosting. Leopold's activist stake (13D, 9.4%). 1.4 GW of power infrastructure at the center of the AI supply chain. | Analysis date: 2026-03-12
Leopold Aschenbrenner filed a Schedule 13D on Core Scientific -- an activist filing, not a passive one. He holds 28.8M shares (9.4% of the company, ~$419M at cost). He explicitly reserves the right to recommend mergers, changes in control, and to communicate with other shareholders. He killed the CoreWeave acquisition attempt in October 2025 by rallying shareholders to vote it down. This is the only company where Leopold has taken an activist position. He doesn't just think CORZ is undervalued -- he's actively trying to change how the company is managed. The question: is the pivot from Bitcoin mining to AI/HPC hosting real, and what's the bull case market cap if it works? At what price would we want to buy?
Core Scientific is not really one company. It is two businesses sharing the same physical assets, and one is dying while the other is being born.
| Self-Mining Revenue (FY2025) | $229M (72%) |
| Self-Mining Revenue (FY2024) | $409M |
| Change | -44% |
| Gross Margin | 5% |
| Hosted Mining Revenue | $24M (8%) |
| Hosted Mining Margin | 32% |
Mining is cratering. Revenue down 44% YoY. Self-mining gross margin collapsed from 23% to 5%. The April 2024 halving cut block rewards in half. Unless Bitcoin doubles (or more), mining margins stay near zero. The company is explicitly winding this down: "We intend to convert every megawatt in our portfolio to high-density colocation infrastructure over the next three years."
| Colocation Revenue (FY2025) | $65M (20%) |
| Colocation Revenue (FY2024) | $24M |
| Change | +168% |
| Gross Margin | 30% |
| Contracted Capacity | 590 MW |
| Deferred Revenue | $556M |
HDC is growing fast but still small. Revenue nearly tripled, margins improved from 11% to 30%, and there's $556M of deferred revenue (contracted but not yet recognized). The company expects "meaningful" HDC revenue in 2026 as billable capacity gets delivered. At full deployment, this becomes the entire company.
| Scenario | Mining Rev | HDC Rev | Total Rev | HDC % | When HDC Dominates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 (actual) | $486M | $24M | $511M | 5% | Mining era |
| FY2025 (actual) | $254M | $65M | $319M | 20% | Transition begins |
| FY2026 (projected) | $150-200M | $200-400M | $350-600M | 50-67% | Crossover year |
| FY2027 (projected) | $50-100M | $500-800M | $550-900M | 75-90% | HDC dominant |
| FY2028+ (projected) | ~$0 | $800M-1.2B | $800M-1.2B | ~100% | Pure HDC |
2026 is the crossover year. Mining revenue will continue declining (halving, rising difficulty, converting MW to HDC). HDC revenue will ramp as the 590 MW of contracted CoreWeave capacity comes online. By 2027-2028, this should be essentially a pure AI/HPC hosting company. The critical question is whether the stock should be valued as a dying miner (cheap multiples) or a growing infrastructure company (expensive multiples). The market is currently trying to figure this out.
The real asset here is not the mining equipment. It is the power infrastructure.
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Utility Power | ~1.4 GW | Across 10 data centers in 7 US states |
| Leasable Customer Power | 920 MW | Available for HDC customers |
| Contracted (CoreWeave) | 590 MW | 64% of leasable capacity sold |
| Remaining Available | 330 MW | 36% still to be sold |
| PP&E (Net) | $1.29B | 3x from $433M in FY2024 (massive build) |
| Valuation Method | $/MW | Implied EV (920 MW) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin miner valuation | $3-5M | $2.8-4.6B | How crypto miners trade |
| AI/HPC infrastructure valuation | $10-15M | $9.2-13.8B | How data center operators trade |
| Premium AI infrastructure | $15-20M | $13.8-18.4B | Tier-1 hyperscale colo |
| Current Enterprise Value | $6.6M | $6.07B | Market price today |
The re-rating thesis: At $6.07B EV, the market is valuing CORZ at ~$6.6M per MW -- roughly midway between Bitcoin miner multiples ($3-5M) and AI/HPC multiples ($10-15M). If the pivot succeeds and the market re-rates this as pure AI infrastructure, the same assets could be worth $9-18B. That is a 1.5-3x from current EV without adding a single megawatt.
Competitors for context: CORZ has the largest power capacity among all Bitcoin miners (~1.4 GW gross). For comparison: IREN ~1GW, RIOT ~1GW, CLSK ~0.9GW, CIFR ~0.7GW. CORZ is also the furthest along in the AI/HPC pivot -- already generating real HDC revenue with an actual hyperscaler contract (CoreWeave).
| State | Ownership | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Owned | |
| Kentucky | Owned | |
| North Carolina | Owned | |
| Oklahoma | Owned | |
| Alabama | Leased | |
| North Dakota | Leased | |
| Texas (Austin) | Leased | First CoreWeave site (16 MW) |
| CoreWeave's share of Colocation revenue | 100% |
| Number of other HDC customers | ZERO |
| Total contracted capacity | 590 MW |
Every dollar of colocation revenue -- the segment that is supposed to become the entire company -- comes from ONE customer. The 10-K explicitly states: "One customer, CoreWeave, currently accounts for 100% of our Colocation segment revenue."
| Date | Event | Capacity |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2024 | Initial contract at Austin, TX | 16 MW |
| Jun 2024 | Major expansion contract | +200 MW |
| 2024-early 2025 | Multiple option exercises | +374 MW |
| Current | Total contracted | ~590 MW |
| July 7, 2025 | CoreWeave proposed all-stock merger to acquire Core Scientific |
| October 14, 2025 | Leopold's 13D/A filed showing 9.4% stake (two weeks before vote) |
| October 30, 2025 | Stockholders REJECTED the merger at special meeting |
| Cost to CORZ | $21.6M in advisory/legal fees. No termination fees. |
Why shareholders rejected it: The merger was all-stock, meaning CORZ shareholders would have received CoreWeave shares. Given CoreWeave's heavy leverage and CORZ's valuable power assets, the consensus (led by Leopold) was that CORZ's assets were worth more independent than what CoreWeave was offering. Leopold's view: keep the assets independent, diversify customers, and let the market re-rate.
| Entity | Situational Awareness LP |
| Key Persons | Leopold Aschenbrenner (German citizen), Carl Shulman (US citizen) |
| Filing Type | Schedule 13D (ACTIVIST) |
| Current Shares | 28,756,478 |
| Ownership % | 9.4% |
| Estimated Cost Basis | ~$14.00/share avg |
| Estimated Total Cost | ~$403M |
| Current Value | ~$467M (at $16.24) |
| Quarter | Shares | Change | Approx. Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | 4,521,578 | New position | $32.7M |
| Q2 2025 | 7,994,038 | +77% | $136.5M |
| Q3 2025 | 20,180,534 | +152% | $362.0M |
| Q4 2025 | 28,756,478 | +42% | $418.7M |
| Date | Shares | Avg Price | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18 | 203,578 | $13.19 | $2.7M |
| Jul 21 | 315,005 | $13.48 | $4.2M |
| Jul 22 | 199,461 | $13.24 | $2.6M |
| Jul 31 | 676,250 | $13.57 | $9.2M |
| Aug 5 | 1,000,000 | $13.75 | $13.8M |
| Aug 6 | 1,000,000 | $13.99 | $14.0M |
| Aug 7 | 1,000,000 | $14.32 | $14.3M |
| Aug 8 | 682,666 | $14.32 | $9.8M |
| Aug 11 | 1,493,133 | $14.63 | $21.8M |
| Aug 12 | 3,064,787 | $14.90 | $45.7M |
| Aug 13 | 615,413 | $13.85 | $8.5M |
Average purchase price: ~$14.15/share. Leopold bought aggressively through July-August 2025, deploying roughly $147M in disclosed open-market purchases across just 4 weeks. His buying was methodical -- ramping from 200K shares/day to 3M shares/day as he built conviction.
The 13D filing explicitly reserves Leopold's right to:
Our read: Leopold wants CORZ to (1) keep its assets independent (hence killing the CoreWeave merger), (2) diversify HDC customers beyond CoreWeave, (3) sign contracts with 2-3 additional hyperscalers, and (4) let the market re-rate from Bitcoin miner multiples to AI infrastructure multiples. His "Situational Awareness" thesis (AGI is coming and needs enormous compute/power infrastructure) makes CORZ a direct play on the physical layer of AGI.
Core Scientific emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy on January 23, 2024 -- just over two years ago. The balance sheet still carries the scars.
| Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS | |||
| Cash & Equivalents | $311M | $836M | Declining rapidly (-63%) |
| Digital Assets (Bitcoin) | $222M | $24M | Accumulating BTC (HODL strategy) |
| Customer Funding Receivable | $362M | $43M | CoreWeave prepayments for buildout |
| Total Current Assets | $896M | $904M | Flat despite cash decline |
| PP&E (Net) | $1,293M | $433M | 3x increase -- massive build |
| Total Assets | $2,348M | $1,476M | +59% |
| LIABILITIES | |||
| Current Liabilities | $781M | $135M | Accrued construction costs |
| Convertible Notes (LT) | $1,060M | $1,074M | $460M @ 3% + $625M @ 0% |
| Warrant Liabilities | $936M | $1,097M | From bankruptcy emergence |
| Deferred Revenue (LT) | $428M | $0 | CoreWeave prepayments |
| Total Liabilities | $3,310M | $2,419M | |
| EQUITY | |||
| Stockholders' Deficit | -$963M | -$943M | Negative equity |
| Instrument | Principal | Coupon | Maturity | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.00% Convertible Senior Notes | $460M | 3.0% | 2029 | TBD conversion rate |
| 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes | $625M | 0.0% | 2031 | ~$22.49/share (44.46 shares/$1K) |
| Total Notes | $1,085M | |||
| Warrant Liabilities | $936M | Two tranches from Chapter 11 emergence | ||
These convert at $22.49/share. The stock is at $16.24 -- 28% below the conversion price. If the stock rises above $22.49, the notes convert to ~27.8M new shares (about 9% dilution). If the stock stays below $22.49, the company must repay $625M in cash by 2031. With only $311M in cash today, that would require either generating significant cash flow or raising capital.
The 3% notes due 2029 are a nearer-term obligation: $460M plus interest. Combined with the zero-coupon notes, CORZ has $1.085B in debt coming due within 3-6 years.
Warrant liabilities ($936M): These are non-cash liabilities carried at fair value -- they represent warrants issued to creditors when CORZ emerged from bankruptcy. The warrants are exercisable at $6.81 and $0.01 per share. They create dilution but do not require cash repayment. The fair value fluctuates with the stock price, which is why net loss is distorted by warrant revaluation (FY2024 had $1.37B of non-cash warrant revaluation losses).
| Cash Flow | FY2025 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $278M | — |
| Capital Expenditures | -$729M | — |
| Free Cash Flow | -$451M | — |
| Financing Activities | -$63M | — |
| Net Cash Change | -$526M | — |
CORZ is burning half a billion dollars per year building out HDC infrastructure. Operating cash flow is healthy ($278M) but capex ($729M) dwarfs it. The company started the year with $836M in cash and ended with $311M. At this burn rate, they run out of cash by mid-2026 unless capex slows, HDC revenue ramps, or they raise capital. The $362M customer funding receivable (CoreWeave prepayments) and $556M deferred revenue suggest CoreWeave is partially funding the buildout.
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||
| Colocation (HDC) | $0 | $24M | $65M | +168% |
| Self-Mining | $310M | $409M | $229M | -44% |
| Hosted Mining | $69M | $78M | $24M | -69% |
| Total Revenue | $379M | $511M | $319M | -38% |
| Costs & Margins | ||||
| Colocation Gross Margin | — | 11% | 30% | +19pp |
| Self-Mining Gross Margin | 43% | 23% | 5% | -18pp |
| Hosted Mining Gross Margin | 38% | 31% | 32% | +1pp |
| Total Gross Profit | $155M | $121M | $38M | -69% |
| Operating Loss | -$52M | -$142M | -$246M | -73% |
| Net Loss | -$825M | -$1,438M | -$289M | Improved |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $77M | $157M | $30M | -81% |
| Cash | $311M | Declining rapidly |
| Bitcoin Holdings | $222M | Liquidatable but volatile |
| Total Debt | $1,085M | $460M due 2029, $625M due 2031 |
| Warrant Liabilities | $936M | Non-cash, but dilutive |
| Stockholders' Equity | -$963M | Deeply negative |
| PP&E | $1,293M | Real, hard assets |
| Deferred Revenue | $556M | Contracted future income |
| Free Cash Flow | -$451M | Heavy capex phase |
Zero scenario: If CoreWeave goes bankrupt AND Bitcoin crashes AND CORZ can't find new HDC customers AND capital markets freeze up, the company could run out of cash and default on its $1.085B debt. The physical assets (data centers, power contracts) have value even in liquidation, but equity holders would be wiped out if liabilities exceed asset recovery.
Counter: The power infrastructure is real and valuable. Even in distress, these assets would attract buyers -- other hyperscalers, infrastructure funds, utilities. The data center power shortage means there's a ready market for these assets. Bankruptcy is possible but equity wipeout is unlikely unless multiple things go wrong simultaneously.
Result: This is NOT a "can't lose money" situation. Proceed with caution.
Specifically, three things need to happen:
Evidence the pivot is working:
| Bull Case Scenario | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Total leasable capacity | 920 MW | Current portfolio |
| Utilization (full) | 100% | All MW contracted |
| Revenue per MW per year | $200-300K | Industry hosting rates |
| HDC revenue at full utilization | $184-276M | Base hosting revenue only |
| Plus services/premium/escalation | +50-100% | Power pass-through, services |
| Total HDC revenue at scale | $300-550M | 920 MW fully deployed |
| HDC gross margin at scale | 40-50% | Currently 30%, improving |
| EBITDA at scale | $120-275M | Rough estimate |
| EBITDA multiple (AI infra) | 20-30x | Premium infrastructure |
| Implied EV (920 MW only) | $2.4-8.3B | Current capacity |
At 920 MW only, bull case EV is $2.4-8.3B. With expansion beyond 920 MW, the numbers get bigger. The question is: how much can they expand, and how fast?
| Scenario | Capacity | Revenue | EBITDA | EV (25x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current (920 MW deployed) | 920 MW | $300-550M | $120-275M | $3-6.9B |
| Moderate expansion | 2 GW | $600M-1.2B | $240-600M | $6-15B |
| Aggressive expansion | 3-4 GW | $1-2B | $400M-1B | $10-25B |
Aggressive expansion bull case: $10-25B EV. This requires CORZ expanding to 2-4+ GW, achieving premium AI infrastructure multiples, and diversifying beyond CoreWeave. Our 10x entry = bull case ÷ 10 = $1-2.5B market cap ($3-8/share).
Bull case market cap: $9-25B (920 MW at AI multiples on the low end, 2-4 GW expansion on the high end). This requires the pivot to succeed, customer diversification, and capacity expansion.
10x entry = $1-2.5B market cap ($3-8/share). The 52-week low was $6.20 — inside this range. At the 52-week low, CORZ was a legitimate 10x candidate if you believed the bull case.
Key assumptions for the bull case: (1) CoreWeave contract delivers as expected, (2) CORZ signs 2+ additional major AI/HPC customers, (3) capacity expands beyond 920 MW, (4) no liquidity crisis before HDC revenue ramps. Our probability: 40%.
| Floor Component | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PP&E (Net) | $1,293M | Data centers, power infrastructure |
| Bitcoin Holdings | $222M | Liquid |
| Cash | $311M | Declining |
| Deferred Revenue | $556M | Contracted, partially funds assets |
| Other Current Assets | $362M | Customer funding receivable |
| Gross Asset Value | ~$2.7B | Tangible assets + contracted revenue |
| Less: Convertible Debt | -$1,085M | |
| Less: Current Liabilities | -$781M | |
| Residual Equity Value | ~$850M | ~$2.80/share |
The floor is LOW. Due to $1.085B in convertible debt and negative equity, the floor for equity holders is maybe $2-3/share in a liquidation scenario. The warrant liabilities ($936M) are non-cash and would likely be worth much less in a distress scenario (warrants are worthless if the stock is near zero). But the operating floor -- with the pivot continuing -- is probably $2-3B EV, which translates to maybe $4-7/share equity after debt claims.
At $16.24, the downside to the floor is $10-13/share (60-80%). This is a HIGH-RISK investment. The negative equity, heavy debt load, single customer concentration, and ongoing cash burn create a genuine possibility of significant loss. This is not a "buy it and forget it" stock. It requires active monitoring of the CoreWeave relationship, cash burn trajectory, and customer diversification progress.
| Company | Power | AI/HPC Progress | Market Cap | CORZ Advantage? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORZ (Core Scientific) | ~1.4 GW | 590 MW contracted to CoreWeave. Real revenue ($65M). | $5.1B | — |
| IREN (Iris Energy) | ~1 GW | Building GPU cloud. Smaller scale. | ~$3B | CORZ has more capacity + actual contracts |
| RIOT (Riot Platforms) | ~1 GW | Focused on mining. Less AI progress. | ~$4B | CORZ is years ahead on pivot |
| CLSK (CleanSpark) | ~0.9 GW | Pure mining focus. | ~$3B | CORZ diversifying away from mining |
| HUT (Hut 8) | ~0.8 GW | Mining + AI cloud, moderate scale. | ~$2B | CORZ has larger infrastructure |
| CIFR (Cipher Mining) | ~0.7 GW | Some HPC exploration. | ~$1.5B | CORZ has established HDC revenue |
CORZ's competitive advantages among miners: (1) Largest power capacity, (2) furthest along in AI/HPC pivot with actual revenue, (3) contracted pipeline ($556M deferred revenue), (4) activist investor pushing for value maximization. The disadvantage: 100% customer concentration vs peers who haven't yet committed to a single customer.
| Market Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Short Interest | 63.1M shares (20%) | Heavy short interest = high skepticism |
| Beta | 6.9 | Extremely volatile (7x market moves) |
| 52-Week Range | $6.20 - $23.63 | 3.8x range, low to high |
| Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy (1.27/5) | 17 analysts, very bullish |
| Price Target (Mean) | $26.40 | +63% upside from current |
| Price Target (High) | $40.00 | +146% upside |
| Forward P/E | 38.7x | On $0.42 forward EPS |
20% short interest is significant. The shorts are betting on: CoreWeave risk, cash burn, failed pivot, or general Bitcoin downturn. If the HDC revenue ramp accelerates, the short squeeze potential is real -- 20% short + beta of 6.9 = explosive moves in either direction.
Leopold published "Situational Awareness" in 2024 arguing that AGI is coming by ~2027 and will require orders of magnitude more compute. His entire portfolio is positioned around this thesis: BE (power supply), CORZ (power infrastructure/data centers), CRWV/CoreWeave (GPU cloud), INTC (chip manufacturing), EQT (natural gas). CORZ is the only one where he went activist.
Why activist on CORZ specifically?
Leopold's implied target: If he believes the power assets are worth $10-15M/MW in an AI infrastructure context, then 920 MW leasable = $9.2-13.8B EV. Minus ~$1B net debt = $8.2-12.8B equity. At ~306M diluted shares = $27-42/share. He bought at ~$14 avg cost. As an activist with 9.4%, he's not just waiting for re-rating — he's actively pushing for customer diversification and value realization.
| Bull Case EV (920 MW at AI multiples) | $9-14B |
| Bull Case EV (expanded to 2+ GW) | $15-25B |
| 10x Entry Market Cap | $1-2.5B ($3-8/share) |
| Current Market Cap | $5.12B ($16.24/share) |
| Floor (equity value) | $0.8-2B ($2.80-6.50/share) |
| 52-Week Low | $6.20 |
| Key Assumptions | CoreWeave delivers + customer diversification + capacity expansion |
This is the most complex company we've analyzed. The thesis is real: Bitcoin mining infrastructure being repurposed for AI/HPC hosting is a genuine transformation, and the power assets are undervalued if the pivot succeeds. Leopold's activist involvement is the strongest smart-money signal we've seen -- he's not just buying, he's trying to reshape the company.
Our 10x entry zone is $3-8/share ($1-2.5B market cap). The stock touched $6.20 at its 52-week low — inside this range. When it does trade in this zone again (market crash, bad quarter, CoreWeave scare), we need to be ready with this analysis already done. The single-customer concentration is the biggest risk — if CoreWeave stumbles, the stock could drop into our entry zone, which would be the time to assess whether the underlying power assets still have value.
What would change our mind:
Leopold's activist position validates the thesis — the power assets are real and the AI pivot is happening. His cost basis (~$14) and 9.4% stake give him influence over the outcome. The question for us is simply: at what price does the risk/reward become asymmetric in our favor? That price is $3-8/share.
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 0001839341), 10-K filing (FY2025), yfinance, Situational Awareness LP 13D/13F filings, corescientific.com. Analysis date: 2026-03-12.