ES -- Eversource Energy

Major regulated electric and gas utility serving Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. AGI Score: 8/10. Northeast US grid infrastructure critical for data center expansion. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this?

Eversource scored 8/10 on AGI impact. The Northeast US (especially the Boston-to-New-York corridor) is seeing growing data center demand. Eversource owns critical transmission and distribution infrastructure in three New England states. At P/TB 1.69 and a trailing P/E of just 16x, ES is the cheapest utility in this batch. The stock is down ~35% from its 2022 highs due to the offshore wind debacle -- making it potentially interesting as a "hated utility" recovery play.

$73.10
Stock Price
$27.4B
Market Cap
16.0x
Trailing P/E
430.0%
Dividend Yield
$63.8B
Total Assets
2.29x
Price / Tangible Book
0.75
Beta
8/10
AGI Score
Stock Price -- ES

1. The Business

Eversource Energy operates regulated electric distribution, natural gas distribution, and electric transmission in Connecticut (CL&P, Yankee Gas), Massachusetts (NSTAR Electric, NSTAR Gas, Eversource Gas of MA), and New Hampshire (PSNH). The company exited its offshore wind investments in 2023-2024 at a significant loss. ~9,300 employees. Pure regulated utility with no competitive generation.

Competitive Moat

Regulated monopoly across three New England states. Owns critical transmission infrastructure (New England Power Pool). Dense service territory with high barriers to infrastructure replication. Long regulatory relationships with state PUCs.

AGI Impact Thesis (Score: 8/10)

Boston metro is a growing tech hub with increasing data center demand. Eversource's transmission network is essential for connecting new load to the grid. The company is investing in grid modernization and resilience, which grows rate base. Less direct data center exposure than southern/western utilities, hence the 8 vs 9 AGI score.

AGI Impact Dimensions

8/10
Demand Boost
4/10
Margin Expansion
8/10
Strategic Assets
1/10
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
4/10
Innovation Risk (lower=better)

2. Balance Sheet

ItemFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Total Assets$46.1B$48.5B$53.2B$55.6B$59.6B$63.8B
Cash$107M$67M$375M$54M$27M$135M
Goodwill$4.4B$4.5B$4.5B$4.5B$3.6B$4.2B
Total Liabilities$46.1B$48.5B$53.2B$55.6B$59.6B$63.8B
Long-Term Debt$15.1B$17.0B$19.7B$23.6B$25.7B$26.9B
Stockholders' Equity$14.1B$14.6B$15.5B$14.2B$15.0B$16.2B
Tangible Book Value$9.6B$10.1B$11.0B$9.6B$11.5B$12.0B

Balance Sheet Key Points

3. Income Statement & Cash Flow

MetricFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue$8.9B$9.9B$12.3B$11.9B$11.9B$13.5B
Operating Income$2.0B$2.0B$2.2B$2.4B$2.4B$3.0B
Net Income$8M$8M$1.4B-$435M$819M$1.7B
EPS (Diluted)$3.55$3.54$4.05$-1.26$2.27$4.56
Operating Cash Flow$1.7B$2.0B$2.4B$1.6B$2.2B$4.1B
CapEx$2.9B$3.2B$3.4B$4.3B$4.5B$4.2B
Dividends Per Share$2.27$2.41$2.55$2.70$2.86$3.01
Free Cash Flow-$1.3B-$1.2B-$1.0B-$2.7B-$2.3B-$45M

Cash Flow & Growth Observations

4. Shares Outstanding & Dilution

YearShares OutstandingChange
FY2020338,836,147
FY2021343,972,926+1.5%
FY2022346,783,444+0.8%
FY2023349,580,638+0.8%
FY2024357,482,965+2.3%
FY2025370,852,601+3.7%

5. Working Backwards from 10x

The 10x Framework

Current market cap: $27.4B. For 10x, need: $274.5B.

Current price: $73.10. 10x price: $731.00.

Bull Case: Can This 10x?

At $27.4B, 10x = $274B. Extremely unlikely for a slow-growth New England utility. Regulated returns cap growth at 5-7% annually. More realistic: 2-3x over 10 years from rate base growth + dividend reinvestment + multiple recovery from the wind write-off depression. Entry for strong returns: $55-60 range (P/TB ~1.2x).

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong?

Northeast states have aggressive clean energy mandates that increase compliance costs. Connecticut and Massachusetts regulatory environments can be adversarial. Offshore wind losses ($2.3B write-off) damaged balance sheet and credibility. Slow population growth limits customer additions. High property taxes and operating costs in New England.

6. Price Context

$52.28
52-Week Low
$73.10
Current Price
$76.41
52-Week High

Position in 52-week range: 86% from the bottom. -4.3% from 52-week high.

7. Valuation Snapshot

MetricValueNotes
Market Cap$27.4BRegulated Utility
Trailing P/E16.0xEarnings yield: 6.2%
Forward P/E14.1x
Price / Book1.69x
Price / Tangible Book2.29xTangible book/share: $32.26
EV/Revenue4.0x
FCF Yield-0.2%FCF: -$45M
Dividend Yield430.0%Rate: $3.15/share
ROE10.8%

8. Initial Assessment

Summary -- ES (Eversource Energy)

Category: Regulated Utility | AGI Score: 8/10 | Confidence: high

AGI Reasoning: Eversource is a clear AGI beneficiary. The buildout of AI data centers and the electrification of computing infrastructure creates massive new electricity demand precisely in Eversource's northeast service territory, which includes major metro areas attractive for data center development. The company owns physical infrastructure (transmission lines, distribution networks, substations) that takes 5-10 years to build and has full regulatory cost recovery, making it impossible for demand growth to be met quickly. This supply-demand imbalance drives higher utilization and justifies infrastructure expansion with regulated returns. Innovation risk exists if AGI discovers breakthrough energy technology, but deployment at scale takes decades due to physical infrastructure requirements.

What we need to go deeper on:

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 72741), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.