GEV -- GE Vernova

Gas turbines, grid infrastructure, nuclear SMRs. The power generation backbone for AI scaling. | AGI Score: 9/10 | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this?

AGI Infrastructure Supply Chain. GE Vernova is a premier AGI beneficiary. Massive demand boost: AGI training and inference require exponential electricity growth, driving insatiable demand for gas turbines, grid infrastructure, and nuclear SMRs. Hyperscalers/data centers are explicitly cited as key growth drivers. Strategic assets: 7,000 gas turbine installed base with 10-year service contracts, established nuclear/grid technology, and physical infrastructure that takes years to replicate. Power demand is THE bottleneck for AGI scaling. Low disruption risk—AGI needs physical electricity regardless of source. Innovation risk modest—even if fusion/new energy tech emerges, deployment takes 10-20 years; GE Vernova captures the transition. Strong AGI tailwind with minimal downside. Classic physical bottleneck thesis.

$805.02
Stock Price
$218B
Market Cap
45.4x
P/E (Trailing)
$38.1B
Revenue (FY2025)
3.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
20.1%
Gross Margin
$5.0B
Operating Cash Flow
$3.7B
Free Cash Flow
42.6%
Return on Equity
Stock Price -- GEV

1. The Business

GE Vernova is the energy spin-off from GE. Three segments: Power (gas turbines, nuclear, steam -- 43% rev), Wind (onshore/offshore wind -- 25%), and Electrification (grid solutions, power conversion, solar/storage -- 32%). 80,000+ employees. Installed base of 7,000+ gas turbines globally.

Competitive Moat

Installed base of 7,000+ gas turbines with long-term service contracts (10-15 year agreements). Gas turbines are the only large-scale, quickly deployable baseload power source. Grid infrastructure expertise (transformers, HVDC, grid software) is essential for utility modernization. Decades of nuclear engineering knowledge.

AGI Impact Thesis

AGI Score: 9/10 -- AGI scaling requires exponential electricity growth. Gas turbines are the only technology that can deploy large-scale baseload power quickly (2-3 years vs 10+ for nuclear). GE Vernova's HA-class gas turbines are the most efficient in the world (64%+ combined cycle efficiency). Grid modernization is critical -- you can't power data centers if the grid can't deliver. Nuclear SMR potential is a long-term option.

9/10
Demand Boost
5/10
Margin Expansion
9/10
Strategic Assets

Key Stats

Employees78,000
Sector / IndustryIndustrials / Specialty Industrial Machinery
52-Week Range$252.25 -- $894.93
BetaN/A (recently spun off)
P/E (Forward)35.4x
Price / Book19.4x
Price / Sales5.7x
EV / EBITDA72.7x
Dividend Yield18.0%
Operating Margin7.4%

2. Financial History (XBRL)

MetricFY2024FY2025
Revenue$34.9B$38.1B
Gross Profit$6.1B$7.5B
Operating Income$471M$1.4B
Net Income$1.6B$4.9B
Operating Cash Flow$2.6B$5.0B
Capital Expenditures$883M$1.3B
EPS (Diluted)$5.58$17.69
Gross Margin17.4%19.8%
Free Cash Flow$1.7B$3.7B

3. Balance Sheet

ItemFY2024FY2025
Total Assets$51.5B$63.0B
Current Assets$34.2B$40.2B
Goodwill$4.3B$4.4B
Intangible Assets$813M$727M
Total Liabilities$51.5B$63.0B
Current Liabilities$31.7B$41.0B
Stockholders' Equity$10.6B$12.3B

Balance Sheet Assessment

Tangible Book Value: $7.1B (Equity $12.3B minus Goodwill $4.4B minus Intangibles $727M)

Goodwill + Intangibles as % of Total Assets: 8.2%

GE Vernova has meaningful tangible assets in the form of manufacturing facilities and an installed base of 7,000+ gas turbines generating long-term service revenue. The goodwill ($4.4B) is relatively modest for a company of this size.

10x Analysis -- Working Backwards

What entry price gives 10x in 5-7 years?

Current: $805.02/share, $218.4B market cap, $38.1B revenue, $4.9B net income

Scenario2031 Revenue2031 Net IncomeExit P/E2031 Mkt Cap10x Entry Pricevs Current
Bull (30% CAGR)$183.7B$27.6B30x$826.9B$306.78-62%
Base (20% CAGR)$113.7B$13.6B25x$341.0B$126.52-84%
Conservative (15% CAGR)$88.1B$8.8B20x$176.1B$65.34-92%

Key insight: The 10x entry price tells you how far the stock needs to fall before a 10x return becomes plausible.

Bull vs Bear

Bull Case

  • Gas turbine orderbook at multi-decade highs
  • Grid modernization is a $100B+ multi-decade opportunity
  • Only company that can serve entire power generation value chain
  • Service contracts provide recurring revenue on installed base
  • Nuclear SMR potential (BWRX-300) is free option value

Bear Case

  • Wind segment is destroying value -- exit or fix is years away
  • At $218B, priced as a growth company (45x+ P/E)
  • Gas turbines face long-term secular decline (decarbonization)
  • Post-spin balance sheet complexity
  • Execution risk on simultaneous grid/gas/nuclear expansion

Key Risks

Initial Assessment

Summary for GEV

GE Vernova is a legitimate AGI infrastructure play with high confidence in the AGI thesis. Power generation is THE physical bottleneck for AGI scaling, and GE Vernova is the only company that can serve the entire value chain from gas turbines to grid equipment to nuclear.

The question is valuation. At $218B market cap and 45x+ P/E, the stock already prices in substantial growth. The wind segment is a drag that needs to be fixed or exited.

Floor price analysis: Meaningful tangible assets (gas turbine installed base, manufacturing facilities, grid equipment IP) provide some downside protection, but the premium above book reflects expected future earnings growth from the AI power thesis.

Action: WATCHLIST. Monitor for a significant price decline that brings the stock closer to the 10x entry zone. GE Vernova is a best-in-class power infrastructure company -- the opportunity comes during market panics or when the wind segment disappointments create selling pressure.

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1996810), yfinance, 10-K filing (FY2025), AGI Impact Scoring Framework. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.