LIN — Linde plc

World's largest industrial gas company, $34B revenue, AGI 9. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this?

Linde is the world's largest industrial gas company. AGI score 9: data centers and semiconductor fabs need ultra-pure gases (nitrogen, specialty gases for chip manufacturing, cooling gases). At $494/share ($229B market cap), trades at 34x P/E and 6x book. Revenue $34B, net income $7.1B. Incredibly stable (take-or-pay contracts, 15-20 year terms).

$493.92
Stock Price
$228.9B
Market Cap
5.99x
Price / Book
$34.0B
Revenue (TTM)
$10.4B
Operating Cash Flow
$4.8B
Free Cash Flow
33.8x
P/E (trailing)
1.3%
Dividend Yield
9/10
AGI Score
Stock Price — LIN

1. The Business

Linde produces atmospheric gases (oxygen, nitrogen, argon) and process gases (hydrogen, helium, CO2, electronic gases, specialty gases). Serves healthcare, chemicals, energy, manufacturing, metals, food, and electronics. 65,177 employees. Revenue $34B, growing steadily. Operating margin 26%, net margin 21%. Three delivery modes: on-site (long-term contracts), merchant (liquid trucks), packaged (cylinders).

2. Financial History

MetricFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue$27.2B$30.8B$33.4B$32.9B$33.0B$34.0B
Net Income$2.6B$4.0B$4.3B$6.3B$6.7B$7.1B
Operating Cash FlowN/AN/A$8.9B$9.3B$9.4B$10.3B
Capital Expenditures$3.4B$3.1B$3.2B$3.8B$4.5B$5.3B
Operating Income$3.3B$5.0B$5.4B$8.0B$8.6B$8.9B

Key Financial Metrics

3. Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet (Latest FY)Value
Total Assets$86.8B
Cash & Equivalents$5.1B
Property, Plant & Equipment$28.3B
Goodwill$27.9B
Intangible Assets$11.9B
Long-Term Debt$20.7B
Stockholders Equity$39.7B
Tangible Book Value-$70M
Tangible Book / Share$-0.15
Shares Outstanding469,488,000

4. Shares Outstanding & Dilution

YearShares OutstandingChange
FY2020526,736,000-
FY2021516,896,000-1.9%
FY2022499,736,000-3.3%
FY2023488,191,000-2.3%
FY2024478,773,000-1.9%
FY2025469,488,000-1.9%

6. Bull vs Bear

Bull: Critical Supplier to AI Infrastructure

Semiconductor fabs (TSMC, Intel, Samsung) require ultra-pure nitrogen, specialty gases, and chemicals, all supplied by Linde under long-term contracts. Every new fab = more Linde revenue. Data centers need cooling solutions and hydrogen for backup power. As the world builds $500B+ in AI infrastructure, Linde's electronic gases segment could double. Revenue trajectory to $45-50B by 2030.

Bull: Unbreakable Business Model

On-site gas supply involves building a plant on the customer's property with 15-20 year take-or-pay contracts. Customers literally cannot switch suppliers without shutting down operations. This creates extraordinary revenue visibility and pricing power. Share buybacks (527M to 469M shares). $6.40/share dividend, growing 8-10%/yr.

Bear: Fully Valued

At 34x P/E and $229B market cap, Linde is priced for continued excellence. Revenue growth is only 3-5% organically. The stock's return comes from buybacks + dividend + multiple expansion. If the multiple compresses to 25x, the stock drops 26%.

Bear: Heavy Balance Sheet

Linde carries $28B goodwill + $12B intangibles = $40B of soft assets (46% of total). Tangible book is essentially negative. Long-term debt is $20.7B. While the business supports this easily, the balance sheet is not clean. The value is entirely in the cash flows.

7. 10x Analysis — Working Backwards

Bull Case Target / 10 = Entry Price

Current Price$493.92
Bull Case Price (by 2030-2035)$1,500
10x Entry Price (Bull Case / 10)$150
Current Price vs 10x Entry$493.92 ABOVE entry zone

Rationale: Revenue to $50B, 25% margins = $12.5B earnings at 30x = $375B = ~$800/share. Aggressive: $1,500 with hydrogen economy + AI fab gases. Entry for 10x: $150. Need deep recession + industrial collapse. Very unlikely given contract structure.

8. Initial Assessment

Summary

LIN at $493.92: Trading well above the 10x entry zone (would need a significant pullback for 10x potential).

AGI Score 9/10 — Strong AGI beneficiary.

Floor estimate: Tangible book is negative (goodwill + intangibles exceed equity). The value is entirely in the cash flows.

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL, yfinance, 10-K filings. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.