25 very large gas carriers (VLGCs) transporting LPG globally. Modern ECO-design fleet. Helios Pool joint venture. | Energy — LPG Shipping / Tankers | AGI Score: 4/10 | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Fleet of 25 VLGCs (physical assets) worth more than market cap. 8.2% dividend yield, 15% share buybacks. Highly cyclical but currently generating strong cash flow ($178M OCF). Fiscal year ends March 31 — note different timing. Ships are real assets with scrap value as floor.
Dorian LPG operates 25 very large gas carriers (VLGCs) transporting liquefied petroleum gas globally, with a focus on modern, fuel-efficient ECO-design vessels. Revenue comes from time charters, spot market voyages, and operation through the Helios Pool joint venture with MOL Energia.
| Sector | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Midstream |
| Employees | 587 |
| ROE | 11.2% |
| ROA | 4.9% |
| Gross Margin | 63.4% |
| Operating Margin | 43.3% |
| Profit Margin | 30.4% |
| 52-Week Range | $16.66 — $38.4 |
| Beta | 0.682 |
| Avg Volume | 568,826 |
| Short Ratio | 2.56 |
| EV / EBITDA | 8.2x |
| Analyst Target | $36.125 (buy) |
| Float Shares | 37M |
| Payout Ratio | 86.6% |
| Item | Value | % of Assets | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS ($1.8B) | |||
| PP&E (net) | $1.2B | 66.7% | Physical assets |
| Cash & Equivalents | $317M | 17.8% | |
| Other Assets | $275M | 15.4% | Receivables, investments, etc. |
| LIABILITIES | |||
| Long-Term Debt | $499M | 28.0% | |
| Other Liabilities | $234M | 13.1% | |
| EQUITY | |||
| Stockholders' Equity | $1.0B | 58.8% | |
| Tangible Book Value | $1.0B | Equity minus goodwill & intangibles | |
| Tangible Book / Share | $24.47 | vs price $29.15 | |
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $95M | $100M | $80M | $134M | $141M | $76M |
| Net Income | $112M | $93M | $72M | $172M | $307M | $90M |
| Total Assets | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.8B | $1.8B |
| Equity | $977M | $947M | $920M | $874M | $1.0B | $1.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $582M | $540M | $591M | $604M | $552M | $499M |
| Cash | $48M | $79M | $237M | $149M | $283M | $317M |
| OCF | $169M | $171M | $119M | $224M | $388M | $173M |
| PP&E | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shares (Diluted) | 54M | 50M | 40M | 40M | 40M | 42M |
| Period | Shares (Diluted) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-31 | 54,115,338 | |
| 2021-03-31 | 49,826,798 | -7.9% |
| 2022-03-31 | 40,365,088 | -19.0% |
| 2023-03-31 | 40,211,642 | -0.4% |
| 2024-03-31 | 40,450,567 | +0.6% |
| 2025-03-31 | 42,232,353 | +4.4% |
| Total Change | -22.0% |
Significant buyback activity. Share count declining 22% over the period. This mechanically increases EPS and book value per share even with no underlying growth.
Current EPS: $2.14 | Current Book/Share: $24.77 | Current Price: $29.15
| Scenario | 7yr Future Price | Entry for 10x | vs Current | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $43.91 | $4.39 | +564% below | 8% EPS growth, 12x exit P/E |
| Bull Case | $85.19 | $8.52 | +242% below | 15% EPS growth, 15x exit P/E |
| Buyback Only | $30.33 | $3.03 | +861% | No revenue growth, buybacks continue at current rate, 12x P/E |
| Demand Boost | 4/10 | How much AGI increases demand for this company's products |
| Margin Expansion | 3/10 | How much AGI reduces costs / expands margins |
| Strategic Assets | 5/10 | Unique assets that become more valuable with AGI |
| Disruption Risk | 4/10 | Risk that AGI disrupts the core business model |
| Innovation Risk | 5/10 | Risk of being out-innovated by AGI-native competitors |
| Overall AGI Score | 4/10 | Category: minimal_impact |
Reasoning: Shipping is capital-intensive with physical constraints that AGI cannot quickly overcome. AGI may modestly increase global trade and petrochemical demand (slight demand boost), and could optimize routing/fuel efficiency (minor margin gains). However, the core business—moving physical LPG across oceans—remains unchanged. Innovation risk exists from alternative energy sources, but deployment timeline is 15+ years for energy infrastructure. Net impact is neutral to slightly positive, but heavily dependent on macro energy transition dynamics outside AGI's direct influence.
LPG (Dorian LPG) trades at 1.15x book value (1.19x tangible book) with $90M net income on a $1.2B market cap (7.2% earnings yield). ROE of 11.2%. Shares have declined 22% over the measurement period through buybacks.
Verdict: WATCHLIST — Cyclical Asset Play. The 25 VLGCs are real assets with scrap value providing a floor. 8.2% dividend + 15% buybacks = massive capital return. But revenue dropped 46% in FY2025 (ending March) showing extreme cyclicality. Tanker shipping is a boom-bust industry. The AMR playbook works here IF you can stomach the volatility. Ships depreciate, so this is a wasting asset requiring reinvestment. Entry zone: $20-24 (floor based on scrap value of fleet minus debt).
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1596993), yfinance, 10-K filing, AGI scoring framework. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.