MHK — Mohawk Industries

World's largest flooring manufacturer: ceramic tile, carpet, rugs, laminate, wood, LVT, vinyl. Vertically integrated. Global operations. | Consumer Cyclical — Flooring / Building Materials | AGI Score: 4/10 | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this? — AMR Playbook — Physical Asset Base + Market Leadership

Global flooring leader trading at 0.75x book. $4.8B in PP&E (factories, equipment), $1.2B goodwill (down from $2.7B — aggressive writedowns). 15% buybacks. $856M cash. The business is cyclical (tied to housing/remodeling) but the physical assets and market position are real. MHK has survived 40+ years of cycles.

$102.55
Stock Price
$6.3B
Market Cap
0.75x
Price / Book
0.89x
Price / Tangible Book
17.3x
P/E (trailing)
9.2x
P/E (forward)
$10.8B
Revenue (LTM)
$370M
Net Income
None
Dividend Yield
Stock Price — MHK

1. The Business

Mohawk is a global flooring manufacturer producing ceramic tile, carpet, rugs, laminate, wood, LVT, and vinyl flooring for residential and commercial markets. The company operates vertically integrated manufacturing and distribution across North America, Europe, and other regions with brands like Daltile, Pergo, and Karastan.

Key Stats

SectorConsumer Cyclical
IndustryFurnishings, Fixtures & Appliances
Employees40,500
ROE4.7%
ROA3.4%
Gross Margin25.2%
Operating Margin7.1%
Profit Margin3.4%

Market Data

52-Week Range$96.24 — $143.13
Beta1.173
Avg Volume1,080,826
Short Ratio2.56
EV / EBITDA5.8x
Analyst Target$144.0 (buy)
Float Shares50M
Payout Ratio0.0%

2. Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet Composition

ItemValue% of AssetsNotes
ASSETS ($13.7B)
PP&E (net)$4.8B34.9%Physical assets
Cash & Equivalents$856M6.3%
Goodwill$1.2B8.8%Intangible — scrutinize
Other Intangibles$117M0.9%
Other Assets$6.7B49.2%Receivables, investments, etc.
LIABILITIES
Long-Term Debt$1.7B12.7%
Other Liabilities$3.6B26.1%
EQUITY
Stockholders' Equity$8.4B61.2%
Tangible Book Value$7.1BEquity minus goodwill & intangibles
Tangible Book / Share$114.72vs price $102.55

3. Financial History

Metric202020212022202320242025
Revenue$2.6B$11.2B$11.7B$11.1B$10.8B$10.8B
Net Income$516M$1.0B$26M-$439M$518M$370M
Total Assets$14.3B$14.2B$14.1B$13.6B$12.8B$13.7B
Equity$8.5B$8.4B$8.0B$7.6B$7.6B$8.4B
Long-Term Debt$2.4B$1.7B$2.0B$1.7B$1.7B$1.7B
Cash$769M$269M$510M$643M$667M$856M
OCF$1.8B$1.3B$669M$1.3B$1.1B$1.1B
PP&E$4.6B$4.6B$4.7B$5.0B$4.6B$4.8B
Goodwill$2.7B$2.6B$1.9B$1.2B$1.1B$1.2B
Shares (Diluted)71M69M64M64M64M62M

4. Shares Outstanding & Buybacks

PeriodShares (Diluted)Change
2020-12-3171,401,000
2021-12-3169,145,000-3.2%
2022-12-3164,062,000-7.4%
2023-12-3163,657,000-0.6%
2024-12-3163,600,000-0.1%
2025-12-3162,400,000-1.9%
Total Change-12.6%

Significant buyback activity. Share count declining 13% over the period. This mechanically increases EPS and book value per share even with no underlying growth.

5. 10x Entry Price Analysis

Working Backwards: What Entry Price Gives 10x?

Current EPS: $5.93 | Current Book/Share: $134.27 | Current Price: $102.55

Scenario7yr Future PriceEntry for 10xvs CurrentAssumptions
Conservative$121.91$12.19+741% below8% EPS growth, 12x exit P/E
Bull Case$236.52$23.65+334% below15% EPS growth, 15x exit P/E
Buyback Only$75.43$7.54+1260%No revenue growth, buybacks continue at current rate, 12x P/E

6. AGI Impact Assessment (Score: 4/10)

Demand Boost2/10How much AGI increases demand for this company's products
Margin Expansion5/10How much AGI reduces costs / expands margins
Strategic Assets2/10Unique assets that become more valuable with AGI
Disruption Risk3/10Risk that AGI disrupts the core business model
Innovation Risk3/10Risk of being out-innovated by AGI-native competitors
Overall AGI Score4/10Category: labor_margin_play

Reasoning: AGI provides moderate margin expansion through automation of manufacturing, logistics, and administrative functions. However, flooring is capital-intensive (raw materials, energy) so labor isn't the dominant cost. Demand is tied to construction and remodeling cycles, not directly boosted by AGI. Innovation risk is modest—AGI might design new materials or manufacturing processes, but physical deployment is slow. Pricing power varies by segment. Overall, AGI impact is mildly positive but not transformative.

7. Bull & Bear Cases

Bull Case

  • World's largest flooring manufacturer — scale and vertical integration advantages
  • $4.8B in PP&E — real factories, equipment with replacement value
  • Aggressively wrote down goodwill ($2.7B → $1.2B) — conservative accounting
  • Trading at 0.75x book despite being the global leader
  • $856M cash, strong OCF ($1.1B) — can self-fund through cycles

Bear Case

  • Revenue flat/declining for 4 years ($11.7B → $10.8B)
  • Net income highly volatile: -$439M (2023) to +$518M (2024) to $370M (2025)
  • Housing/remodeling cycle dependent — interest rates affect demand
  • Significant non-US operations (Europe) with currency risk
  • LVT disruption shifting market from carpet/tile to luxury vinyl

8. Initial Assessment

Summary

MHK (Mohawk Industries) trades at 0.75x book value (0.89x tangible book) with $370M net income on a $6.3B market cap (5.8% earnings yield). ROE of 4.7%. Shares have declined 13% over the measurement period through buybacks.

Verdict: WATCHLIST — Physical Asset Play. $4.8B in PP&E (real factories) + $856M cash, trading at 0.75x book. The world's largest flooring manufacturer is not going away. Goodwill has been aggressively written down ($2.7B to $1.2B). The business is cyclical but has survived 40+ years of cycles. 15% buybacks are compounding. The bear case (flat/declining revenue) is real but already in the price. Entry zone: $80-90 (floor based on replacement value of manufacturing base).

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 851968), yfinance, 10-K filing, AGI scoring framework. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.