World's largest flooring manufacturer: ceramic tile, carpet, rugs, laminate, wood, LVT, vinyl. Vertically integrated. Global operations. | Consumer Cyclical — Flooring / Building Materials | AGI Score: 4/10 | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Global flooring leader trading at 0.75x book. $4.8B in PP&E (factories, equipment), $1.2B goodwill (down from $2.7B — aggressive writedowns). 15% buybacks. $856M cash. The business is cyclical (tied to housing/remodeling) but the physical assets and market position are real. MHK has survived 40+ years of cycles.
Mohawk is a global flooring manufacturer producing ceramic tile, carpet, rugs, laminate, wood, LVT, and vinyl flooring for residential and commercial markets. The company operates vertically integrated manufacturing and distribution across North America, Europe, and other regions with brands like Daltile, Pergo, and Karastan.
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances |
| Employees | 40,500 |
| ROE | 4.7% |
| ROA | 3.4% |
| Gross Margin | 25.2% |
| Operating Margin | 7.1% |
| Profit Margin | 3.4% |
| 52-Week Range | $96.24 — $143.13 |
| Beta | 1.173 |
| Avg Volume | 1,080,826 |
| Short Ratio | 2.56 |
| EV / EBITDA | 5.8x |
| Analyst Target | $144.0 (buy) |
| Float Shares | 50M |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Item | Value | % of Assets | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS ($13.7B) | |||
| PP&E (net) | $4.8B | 34.9% | Physical assets |
| Cash & Equivalents | $856M | 6.3% | |
| Goodwill | $1.2B | 8.8% | Intangible — scrutinize |
| Other Intangibles | $117M | 0.9% | |
| Other Assets | $6.7B | 49.2% | Receivables, investments, etc. |
| LIABILITIES | |||
| Long-Term Debt | $1.7B | 12.7% | |
| Other Liabilities | $3.6B | 26.1% | |
| EQUITY | |||
| Stockholders' Equity | $8.4B | 61.2% | |
| Tangible Book Value | $7.1B | Equity minus goodwill & intangibles | |
| Tangible Book / Share | $114.72 | vs price $102.55 | |
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.6B | $11.2B | $11.7B | $11.1B | $10.8B | $10.8B |
| Net Income | $516M | $1.0B | $26M | -$439M | $518M | $370M |
| Total Assets | $14.3B | $14.2B | $14.1B | $13.6B | $12.8B | $13.7B |
| Equity | $8.5B | $8.4B | $8.0B | $7.6B | $7.6B | $8.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $2.4B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Cash | $769M | $269M | $510M | $643M | $667M | $856M |
| OCF | $1.8B | $1.3B | $669M | $1.3B | $1.1B | $1.1B |
| PP&E | $4.6B | $4.6B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $4.6B | $4.8B |
| Goodwill | $2.7B | $2.6B | $1.9B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.2B |
| Shares (Diluted) | 71M | 69M | 64M | 64M | 64M | 62M |
| Period | Shares (Diluted) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-31 | 71,401,000 | |
| 2021-12-31 | 69,145,000 | -3.2% |
| 2022-12-31 | 64,062,000 | -7.4% |
| 2023-12-31 | 63,657,000 | -0.6% |
| 2024-12-31 | 63,600,000 | -0.1% |
| 2025-12-31 | 62,400,000 | -1.9% |
| Total Change | -12.6% |
Significant buyback activity. Share count declining 13% over the period. This mechanically increases EPS and book value per share even with no underlying growth.
Current EPS: $5.93 | Current Book/Share: $134.27 | Current Price: $102.55
| Scenario | 7yr Future Price | Entry for 10x | vs Current | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $121.91 | $12.19 | +741% below | 8% EPS growth, 12x exit P/E |
| Bull Case | $236.52 | $23.65 | +334% below | 15% EPS growth, 15x exit P/E |
| Buyback Only | $75.43 | $7.54 | +1260% | No revenue growth, buybacks continue at current rate, 12x P/E |
| Demand Boost | 2/10 | How much AGI increases demand for this company's products |
| Margin Expansion | 5/10 | How much AGI reduces costs / expands margins |
| Strategic Assets | 2/10 | Unique assets that become more valuable with AGI |
| Disruption Risk | 3/10 | Risk that AGI disrupts the core business model |
| Innovation Risk | 3/10 | Risk of being out-innovated by AGI-native competitors |
| Overall AGI Score | 4/10 | Category: labor_margin_play |
Reasoning: AGI provides moderate margin expansion through automation of manufacturing, logistics, and administrative functions. However, flooring is capital-intensive (raw materials, energy) so labor isn't the dominant cost. Demand is tied to construction and remodeling cycles, not directly boosted by AGI. Innovation risk is modest—AGI might design new materials or manufacturing processes, but physical deployment is slow. Pricing power varies by segment. Overall, AGI impact is mildly positive but not transformative.
MHK (Mohawk Industries) trades at 0.75x book value (0.89x tangible book) with $370M net income on a $6.3B market cap (5.8% earnings yield). ROE of 4.7%. Shares have declined 13% over the measurement period through buybacks.
Verdict: WATCHLIST — Physical Asset Play. $4.8B in PP&E (real factories) + $856M cash, trading at 0.75x book. The world's largest flooring manufacturer is not going away. Goodwill has been aggressively written down ($2.7B to $1.2B). The business is cyclical but has survived 40+ years of cycles. 15% buybacks are compounding. The bear case (flat/declining revenue) is real but already in the price. Entry zone: $80-90 (floor based on replacement value of manufacturing base).
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 851968), yfinance, 10-K filing, AGI scoring framework. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.