World's leading phosphate and potash fertilizer producer. AGI Score 5/10. Trading at 0.77x book. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Mosaic is the world's largest phosphate and potash producer, trading below book value (P/TB ~0.82x). AGI score 5 — food production is non-negotiable regardless of AGI, but precision agriculture could reduce fertilizer demand over time. The company has been buying back shares aggressively ($2.7B over 3 years) but stopped in FY2025. Share count dropped from 339M to 317M (-6.5% in 3 years). The question: are the mining assets worth more than the market price implies, and does the fertilizer business generate enough cash to protect the downside?
Mosaic is the world's leading producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients. Second largest integrated phosphate producer globally, 11% of world phosphate and 12% of world potash production. Operations in Florida, Louisiana, Canada (Saskatchewan), Brazil, and Peru.
The core asset is the mining reserves. Phosphate rock deposits in Florida and potash deposits in Saskatchewan take decades to develop. These are scarce, depletable physical assets. PP&E on the books is $14.0B — this represents mines, processing plants, and infrastructure. The question is whether these assets are worth more or less than their book value given current commodity prices.
| Item | FY2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ASSETS | ||
| Net PP&E (Mines & Plants) | $14.0B | 57% of total assets — the mines |
| Goodwill | $1.0B | From acquisitions (declining — was $1.14B in 2023) |
| Cash & Equivalents | $277M | |
| Other Assets | ~$9.2B | Receivables, inventory, investments |
| TOTAL ASSETS | $24.5B | |
| LIABILITIES | ||
| Total Debt | $5.3B | Debt/Equity = 0.44x |
| Other Liabilities | ~$7.1B | AP, environmental, pension, tax |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES | $12.4B | |
| EQUITY | ||
| Stockholders' Equity | $12.1B | |
| Tangible Book Value | $11.1B | Equity - Goodwill |
| Tangible BV / Share | $34.93 | vs price $29.31 |
| Year | Revenue | Net Income | OCF | CapEx | FCF | Buyback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | $19.1B | $3.6B | $3.9B | ($1.2B) | $2.7B | ($1.7B) |
| FY2023 | $13.7B | $1.2B | $2.4B | ($1.4B) | $1.0B | ($756M) |
| FY2024 | $11.1B | $175M | $1.3B | ($1.3B) | $47M | ($235M) |
| FY2025 | $12.1B | $541M | $825M | ($1.4B) | ($535M) | $0 |
FY2025 FCF was negative ($-535M). CapEx of $1.4B/year is massive — nearly as large as OCF. This is a capital-intensive mining business that requires continuous heavy spending. The company stopped buybacks in FY2025 because cash was tight. Revenue has dropped 37% from FY2022 peak ($19.1B to $12.1B) as fertilizer prices normalized post-Ukraine spike.
The FY2022 earnings ($3.6B net income) were a one-time commodity spike, NOT normalized earnings. FY2024 ($175M) is closer to trough earnings. FY2025 ($541M) may be mid-cycle.
| Year | Shares | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 339,071,423 | — |
| FY2023 | 324,103,141 | -4.4% |
| FY2024 | 316,932,047 | -2.2% |
| FY2025 | 317,408,647 | +0.1% |
Significant buyback program from FY2022-2024 ($2.7B spent, shares down 6.4%). But buybacks stopped in FY2025 — the company couldn't afford them with negative FCF.
Verdict: MOS is NOT a 10x candidate. Commodity businesses without moats cannot compound. The only path to 10x is buying at cyclical trough ($15-18/share) and selling at cyclical peak. At $29, you're near mid-cycle, not trough.
| Tangible Book Value | $34.93/share | Current price is 16% below |
| Conservative Floor (70% of TBV) | $24.45 | If mines worth 70% of book in downturn |
| Trough Earnings Floor | $18-22 | $175M NI (FY2024 trough) x 12-15x P/E ÷ 317M shares = $6.60-8.28 |
| Replacement Value Floor | $28-35 | PP&E at replacement cost likely exceeds book (inflation on mining assets) |
Floor estimate: $22-28/share. Confidence: Moderate. The mines are real, but commodity price risk makes the earnings floor uncertain. At $29.31, you're near the floor, not far above it. Limited margin of safety.
MOS is a commodity business trading near tangible book value. The assets are real (mines, processing plants), but the earnings are highly cyclical and CapEx is enormous. FCF was negative in FY2025. Not a 10x candidate. The floor is probably $22-28, and at $29 you have minimal margin of safety.
Would only buy at $18-22 (0.55-0.65x tangible book) for a true margin of safety. At that price, you're getting the mines for 55-65 cents on the dollar with a covered dividend.
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1285785), yfinance, 10-K filing (FY2024/2025). Analysis date: 2026-03-13.