AI cloud infrastructure company spun out from Yandex. AGI Score 8. $28.6B market cap. Early-stage but growing fast. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Nebius is the international technology business carved out from Yandex (Russia's Google) after the Russia/Ukraine war forced a restructuring. The company now operates AI cloud infrastructure, GPU compute rental, and AI development tools — essentially positioning as a European/global alternative to AWS/GCP/Azure for AI workloads. The thesis: Nebius has deep AI/ML engineering DNA from Yandex, data center assets, and is building an AI-native cloud at the right time.
Nebius separated from Yandex's Russian operations in 2024. What remains:
Revenue dropped from $8.9B (2023, consolidated Yandex) to $117M (2024, standalone Nebius) — reflecting the split. TTM revenue is now ~$530M as the cloud business ramps.
| Item | FY2024 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $3.55B | Down from $8.8B (pre-split) |
| Cash | $2.45B | 69% of assets is cash (post-capital raise) |
| PP&E | $847M | Data center infrastructure |
| Goodwill | $0 | Clean — no legacy goodwill |
| Intangibles | $5M | Negligible |
| Total Debt | $4.89B | Significant leverage |
| Stockholders' Equity | $3.25B | Book/share: $18.23 |
Nebius becomes the #4 AI cloud provider globally (behind AWS, Azure, GCP). Revenue scales to $5-10B by 2030. At 40-60% gross margins and 10-15x revenue multiple (cloud multiples), market cap = $50-150B on 219M shares = $228-685/share. With profitability and 20x revenue at scale: $1,000+.
Bull case target: $1,130/share. Entry for 10x: ~$113. Current price is $112.95 — exactly at this level.
AI cloud is dominated by hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) with unlimited capital. Nebius may never achieve scale. Revenue is only $530M against $28.6B market cap — 54x revenue is aggressive. Net income is deeply negative. $4.9B debt against $3.25B equity. If AI cloud demand cools or competition intensifies, stock could fall to $20-30 (near book value). At 6.19x book, there is essentially no margin of safety.
Nebius is a pure-play bet on AI cloud infrastructure demand. The engineering talent (ex-Yandex) is real, the cash position ($2.45B) provides runway, and the market opportunity is enormous. But at 54x revenue and 6x book with negative earnings, you are paying for the dream, not the reality. Cannot compute a reliable floor. This is a venture-stage bet at a public market price.
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1513845), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.