OGE -- OGE Energy

Regulated electric utility serving 913K customers in Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Largest electric company in Oklahoma. AGI Score: 9/10. Oklahoma is seeing significant data center development. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this?

OGE scored 9/10 on AGI impact with P/TB of just 1.96 -- one of the cheapest utilities in the AGI beneficiary list. Oklahoma offers cheap natural gas, available land, low natural disaster risk (outside tornado alley), and a business-friendly regulatory environment. Google, Meta, and others are expanding data center presence in Oklahoma. OGE is the monopoly power provider.

$48.35
Stock Price
$10.0B
Market Cap
20.8x
Trailing P/E
355.0%
Dividend Yield
$14.4B
Total Assets
2.00x
Price / Tangible Book
0.58
Beta
9/10
AGI Score
Stock Price -- OGE

1. The Business

OGE Energy Corp is a holding company whose primary subsidiary is Oklahoma Gas & Electric (OG&E), the largest electric utility in Oklahoma. OG&E generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity to ~913,000 customers. Generation mix includes natural gas (primary), coal (declining), wind, and solar. The company operates under regulation by the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (OCC) and Arkansas Public Service Commission.

Competitive Moat

Regulated monopoly over Oklahoma's largest service territory. Low-cost generation from cheap Oklahoma natural gas. Established transmission infrastructure that would cost billions to replicate. Regulatory relationships built over decades.

AGI Impact Thesis (Score: 9/10)

Oklahoma is emerging as a data center market due to: (1) cheap electricity from abundant natural gas, (2) available land and water, (3) business-friendly state government offering tax incentives, (4) central US location for network latency. OG&E's service territory covers the Oklahoma City metro area and surrounding regions where data centers are being built. Rate base growth from infrastructure upgrades drives earnings.

AGI Impact Dimensions

9/10
Demand Boost
5/10
Margin Expansion
8/10
Strategic Assets
2/10
Disruption Risk (lower=better)
3/10
Innovation Risk (lower=better)

2. Balance Sheet

ItemFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Total Assets$10.7B$12.6B$12.5B$12.8B$13.7B$14.4B
PP&E (Net)$9.4B$9.8B$10.5B$11.3B$12.1B$12.7B
Cash$1M--$88M$200K$600K$200K
Goodwill------------
Intangible Assets------------
Total Liabilities$10.7B$12.6B$12.5B$12.8B$13.7B$14.4B
Long-Term Debt$3.5B$4.5B$3.5B$4.3B$5.0B$5.4B
Stockholders' Equity$3.6B$4.1B$4.4B$4.5B$4.6B$5.0B
Tangible Book Value$3.6B$4.1B$4.4B$4.5B$4.6B$5.0B

Balance Sheet Key Points

3. Income Statement & Cash Flow

MetricFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue$2.1B$3.7B$3.4B$2.7B$3.0B$3.3B
Operating Income$522M$544M$650M$650M$745M$799M
Net Income-$174M$737M$666M$417M$442M$471M
EPS (Diluted)$-0.87$3.68$3.32$2.07$2.19$2.32
Operating Cash Flow$713M-$313M$843M$1.2B$813M$1.1B
CapEx$650M$778M$1.1B$1.2B$1.1B$1.1B
Dividends Per Share$1.58$1.62$1.65$1.66$1.68$1.69
Free Cash Flow$62M-$1.1B-$208M$54M-$278M$83M

Cash Flow & Growth Observations

4. Shares Outstanding & Dilution

YearShares OutstandingChange
FY2020200,100,000
FY2021200,100,000+0.0%
FY2022200,200,000+0.0%
FY2023200,300,000+0.0%
FY2024200,800,000+0.2%
FY2025201,900,000+0.5%

5. Working Backwards from 10x

The 10x Framework

Current market cap: $10.0B. For 10x, need: $99.7B.

Current price: $48.35. 10x price: $483.50.

Bull Case: Can This 10x?

At ~$10B market cap, 10x = $100B. Would require Oklahoma to become a top-3 data center market with massive power demand growth. Unlikely -- Oklahoma lacks the network infrastructure of Virginia or the tech ecosystem of Texas. More realistic: 2-3x over 10 years. Entry for strong returns: P/TB < 1.5 ($36-38 range).

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong?

Oklahoma's economy is tied to oil & gas -- a downturn reduces commercial/industrial load. Tornadoes cause costly infrastructure damage. Coal plant retirements require capital investment. Regulatory uncertainty if OCC becomes less accommodative. Limited growth ceiling compared to faster-growing states.

6. Price Context

$40.80
52-Week Low
$48.35
Current Price
$49.55
52-Week High

Position in 52-week range: 86% from the bottom. -2.4% from 52-week high.

7. Valuation Snapshot

MetricValueNotes
Market Cap$10.0BRegulated Utility
Trailing P/E20.8xEarnings yield: 4.8%
Forward P/E18.7x
Price / Book2.00x
Price / Tangible Book2.00xTangible book/share: $24.65
EV/Revenue4.7x
FCF Yield0.8%FCF: $83M
Dividend Yield355.0%Rate: $1.70/share
ROE9.8%

8. Initial Assessment

Summary -- OGE (OGE Energy)

Category: Regulated Utility | AGI Score: 9/10 | Confidence: high

AGI Reasoning: Massive demand boost from AGI-driven data center electricity consumption. Power utilities are the direct beneficiaries of AI/AGI scaling - data centers require reliable baseload power that only utilities can provide. Strategic assets include monopoly service territory, generation/transmission infrastructure, and regulatory relationships (takes decades to replicate). Innovation risk low - even if AGI invents better energy tech, deployment takes 10-20 years. Regulated utility structure ensures cost recovery for investments. Disruption risk minimal - AGI cannot eliminate need for electricity. Clear AGI winner.

What we need to go deeper on:

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1021635), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.