Enterprise AI/data analytics platform for government and commercial customers. AGI Score: 9/10. The "operating system for AI" thesis -- Palantir connects LLMs to real-world operations. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Palantir scored 9/10 on AGI impact. The company's AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) is arguably the most advanced commercial platform for connecting AI models to enterprise data and operations. Government contracts (defense, intelligence) provide a stable revenue base while commercial is growing >50% YoY. At $361B market cap and 240x P/E, this is the most expensive stock in our batch by far. The question: is Palantir the next Salesforce/Oracle of the AI era, or is this a bubble?
Palantir builds enterprise software platforms: Gotham (government intelligence/defense), Foundry (commercial data operations), Apollo (deployment infrastructure), and AIP (AI Platform connecting LLMs to customer data). Revenue split: ~54% government, ~46% commercial. ~3,800 employees. Founded by Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, and others. The company has been profitable since 2023 after years of losses.
Deep integration with classified government systems creates extreme switching costs. Security clearances and classified certifications take years to obtain. Ontology-based data model creates a proprietary knowledge graph that becomes more valuable with use. Network effects within organizations -- once deployed, Palantir becomes the "nervous system" of the organization.
Palantir is positioned as the "middleware" between raw AI models and enterprise operations. While OpenAI/Anthropic/Google build foundation models, Palantir connects those models to real-world data and decision-making. AIP "boot camps" convert enterprises to AI-native operations in days. As AGI capabilities increase, the value of connecting them to real-world operations increases. Government/defense AI spending is accelerating.
| Item | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $2.7B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $4.5B | $6.3B | $8.9B |
| PP&E (Net) | $30M | $31M | $69M | $48M | $40M | $52M |
| Cash | $2.0B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $831M | $2.1B | $1.4B |
| Goodwill | -- | -- | $38M | -- | -- | -- |
| Intangible Assets | -- | -- | $36M | $26M | $18M | -- |
| Total Liabilities | $2.7B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $4.5B | $6.3B | $8.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | $198M | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Stockholders' Equity | $1.5B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $3.6B | $5.1B | $7.5B |
| Tangible Book Value | $1.5B | $2.3B | $2.6B | $3.5B | $5.1B | $7.5B |
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.9B | $4.5B |
| Operating Income | -$1.2B | -$411M | -$161M | $120M | $310M | $1.4B |
| Net Income | -$1.2B | -$520M | -$371M | $217M | $468M | $1.6B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.20 | $-0.27 | $-0.18 | $0.09 | $0.19 | $0.63 |
| Operating Cash Flow | -$297M | $334M | $224M | $712M | $1.2B | $2.1B |
| CapEx | $12M | $13M | $40M | $15M | $13M | $34M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$309M | $321M | $184M | $697M | $1.1B | $2.1B |
| Year | Shares Outstanding | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 977,721,736 | |
| FY2021 | 1,923,617,000 | +96.7% |
| FY2022 | 2,063,793,000 | +7.3% |
| FY2023 | 2,147,446,000 | +4.1% |
| FY2024 | 2,250,163,000 | +4.8% |
| FY2025 | 2,369,612,000 | +5.3% |
Current market cap: $361.0B. For 10x, need: $4T.
Current price: $150.95. 10x price: $1509.50.
At $361B, 10x = $3.6T. That would make Palantir larger than current Apple. Extremely unlikely. Even reaching $1T requires revenue growing from ~$2.9B to $30B+ at high margins. The stock is already pricing in massive growth. Entry for reasonable returns: $30-50 range (80-90% drawdown from current), which would put P/E at ~40x on current earnings. This is a "watch and wait" situation.
Valuation is extreme -- 240x P/E, 125x forward P/E, ~120x revenue. Government contracts can be cut. Competition from Databricks, Snowflake, and hyperscalers building similar AI platforms. Customer concentration risk. Stock-based compensation dilution has been significant historically. Alex Karp sells shares regularly.
Position in 52-week range: 60% from the bottom. -27.3% from 52-week high.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $361.0B | AI Software Platform |
| Trailing P/E | 239.6x | Earnings yield: 0.4% |
| Forward P/E | 81.7x | |
| Price / Book | 48.87x | |
| Price / Tangible Book | 48.58x | Tangible book/share: $3.14 |
| EV/Revenue | 80.3x | |
| FCF Yield | 0.6% | FCF: $2.1B |
| Dividend Yield | N/A | No dividend |
| ROE | 26.0% |
Category: AI Software Platform | AGI Score: 9/10 | Confidence: high
AGI Reasoning: Palantir is exceptionally well-positioned for AGI. AIP directly enables enterprises to deploy AI agents and LLM-powered workflows on their proprietary data with security and governance. As AGI capabilities improve, demand for Palantir's integration layer between AI systems and enterprise operations will surge—every large organization will need this infrastructure. Government customers provide revenue stability. The main risk is that AGI becomes so capable it builds better integration tools itself, but Palantir's deep customer embeds, security clearances, and rapid product velocity (Apollo enables daily updates) create significant switching costs and first-mover advantage in the AI platform race.
What we need to go deeper on:
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1321655), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.