POR — Portland General Electric

Vertically-integrated regulated electric utility serving Oregon. AGI Score 9/10. P/TB 1.50x. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this?

Portland General Electric is a regulated utility with AGI score 9 — Oregon's data center growth (driven by cheap hydropower) translates directly into rate base growth. Regulated monopoly with cost-plus model = guaranteed returns on capital deployed. At P/TB 1.50x, it's near the floor for a regulated utility (1.0-1.3x is the absolute floor). The question: can a regulated utility deliver 10x? Almost certainly not from here — but where is the entry price that makes it interesting?

$53.60

Stock Price

$6.2B

Market Cap

1.50x

Price / Book

$3.58B

Annual Revenue

$1.12B

Operating Cash Flow

19.4x

P/E (trailing)

7.7%

ROE

4.0%

Dividend Yield

0.65

Beta

Stock Price — POR

1. The Business

Portland General Electric is Oregon's largest vertically-integrated electric utility. Founded 1889 (137 years old). Serves ~930,000 customers in the Portland metro area and surrounding regions. Regulated by the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC) with a cost-plus pricing model.

Key Business Characteristics

Legal monopoly — exclusive franchise rights in service territory. No competition.
Revenue formula: Earnings = Rate Base x Allowed ROE (~9-10%)
Oregon is data center friendly — cheap hydropower, cool climate (reduces cooling costs), proximity to Pacific submarine cables
Clean energy transition — Oregon law requires 100% clean electricity by 2040, driving massive capex (which grows the rate base)

2. Financial History

Metric	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Revenue	$2.15B	$2.40B	$2.65B	$2.92B	$3.44B	$3.58B
Net Income	$153M	$244M	$233M	$228M	$306M	$306M
Operating Cash Flow	$572M	$534M	$667M	$424M	$782M	$1.12B
CapEx	$781M	$642M	$774M	$1.36B	$1.27B	$1.19B
EPS (diluted)	$1.72	$2.72	$2.60	$2.33	$3.01	$2.77
Dividends/Share	$1.59	$1.70	$1.79	$1.88	$1.98	$2.08
Operating Income	$272M	$380M	$395M	$395M	$510M	$555M
Interest Expense	$138M	$144M	$156M	$172M	$227M	$243M

Balance Sheet

Item	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
Total Assets	$9.07B	$9.49B	$10.46B	$11.21B	$12.54B	$13.23B
Stockholders' Equity	$2.61B	$2.71B	$2.78B	$3.32B	$3.79B	$4.13B
Long-Term Debt	$2.89B	$3.29B	$3.39B	$3.90B	$4.35B	$4.66B
Shares Outstanding	89.6M	89.6M	89.6M	98.0M	102M	111M

Key Observations

Revenue growing 11% CAGR (2020-2025) — very strong for a regulated utility. Data center load + clean energy investments driving this.
CapEx exceeds OCF every year — typical for a growing utility. The gap is funded by debt and equity issuance.
Shares increased 24% (89.6M to 111M) — significant dilution from equity issuance to fund capex. This dilutes per-share growth.
Debt growing fast — $2.89B to $4.66B (+61%). Debt/Equity = 1.13x. Manageable but watch interest cost trajectory.
No goodwill, no intangible assets — tangible book IS book. Clean balance sheet.
Book value per share: $35.77. Price of $53.60 = 1.50x book. Near the top of the "fair" range for a growing utility.

3. 10x Reverse Engineering (Bull Case to Entry Price)

Bull Case (2036): What could POR be worth?

Thesis: Oregon data center load grows 8-10% annually for 10 years. Clean energy mandate drives $15-20B in total capex. Rate base doubles. EPS grows 6-8% after dilution.

2036 EPS (7% growth from $2.77)	$5.45
Bull P/E (premium utility)	22x
2036 Price Target	$120
Divide by 10x	$12.00

10x Entry Price: ~$12. POR has never traded this low in modern history. The 52-week low is $39.55, and the all-time low in the last decade is around $33 (2020 COVID crash). A 10x from POR requires a catastrophic entry that is extremely unlikely. This is NOT a 10x candidate.

Realistic Upside (3-5x play at the right price)

From the 2022-2023 rate-cycle lows (~$39), POR could 3x to $120 over 10 years if data center growth materializes. That's a 12% annual return (3x over 10 years) — very good for a utility but not 10x.

Entry zone for 3x: $35-40. That's P/TB ~1.0x, which is the floor for a regulated utility. Would need another interest rate scare or Oregon-specific regulatory issue to get there.

4. AGI Impact Assessment

AGI Score: 9/10

Demand Boost: 8/10 — Oregon captures data center expansion via cheap hydropower and cool climate
Strategic Assets: 9/10 — regulated monopoly on physical grid infrastructure. Irreplaceable.
Margin Expansion: 6/10 — AGI can optimize grid operations but regulated returns cap upside
Disruption Risk: 1/10 — virtually zero. AGI cannot generate or transmit electricity.
Innovation Risk: 3/10 — fusion/better solar could disrupt long-term, but utility infrastructure adapts over decades

5. Risks

Oregon wildfire liability — PG&E went bankrupt from California wildfires. Oregon has similar risk (heavily forested).
Dilution — 24% share increase in 5 years erodes per-share value. Expect continued 3-5% annual dilution.
Regulatory risk — OPUC could reduce allowed ROE or deny cost recovery on clean energy investments.
Interest rate sensitivity — utility stocks behave like bonds. Rising rates = falling stock price.
Capital intensity — FCF is deeply negative ($1.19B capex vs $1.12B OCF). Business requires constant capital raising.

6. Verdict

WATCHLIST — Not a 10x candidate. Good utility, wrong price.

POR is a clean, well-run regulated utility with genuine data center tailwind. But at $53.60 (1.50x book), it's priced fairly for a utility — not cheap enough for asymmetric returns. The regulated business model caps upside at 2-5x even in the bull case.

Entry zone: $35-40 (P/TB ~1.0x). Would need an interest rate spike or Oregon-specific regulatory scare. At that price, you get a 6% dividend yield and 3x upside over 10 years.

Floor price: ~$28-32 (0.8x tangible book). Regulated assets earn guaranteed returns, so they are worth at least book value. Even in a crisis, POR holds above 0.8x book.

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 784977), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.