Permian Basin oilfield services, hydraulic fracturing. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Leopold holds PUMP as part of his energy thesis. ProPetro provides hydraulic fracturing and power generation in the Permian Basin. AGI score is only 4, but Leopold's thesis likely centers on: energy demand explosion from data centers, natural gas as bridge fuel for AI power, and PUMP's new PROPWR subsidiary providing mobile power generation to data centers.
ProPetro is a Permian Basin oilfield services company. Core business is hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas E&P companies. 1,700 employees, $1.27B revenue. Recently launched PROPWR subsidiary providing mobile natural gas power generation for data centers and industrial use. Revenue declining from peak ($1.63B to $1.27B) as industry activity moderates.
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $154M | $246M | $1.3B | $1.6B | $1.4B | $1.3B |
| Net Income | -$44M | -$20M | $2M | $86M | -$138M | $824K |
| Operating Cash Flow | $139M | $155M | $300M | $375M | $252M | $232M |
| Capital Expenditures | $101M | $144M | $320M | $371M | $140M | $186M |
| Operating Income | -$131M | -$69M | -$3M | $130M | -$167M | $6M |
| Gross Profit | $39M | $59M | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Balance Sheet (Latest FY) | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Assets | $1.3B |
| Cash & Equivalents | $91M |
| Property, Plant & Equipment | $793M |
| Goodwill | $920K |
| Intangible Assets | $55M |
| Long-Term Debt | $106M |
| Stockholders Equity | $830M |
| Tangible Book Value | $773M |
| Tangible Book / Share | $7.45 |
| Shares Outstanding | 103,838,000 |
| Year | Shares Outstanding | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 100,911,000 | - |
| FY2021 | 103,390,000 | +2.5% |
| FY2022 | 105,868,000 | +2.4% |
| FY2023 | 113,004,000 | +6.7% |
| FY2024 | 105,469,000 | -6.7% |
| FY2025 | 103,838,000 | -1.5% |
Leopold Aschenbrenner holds PUMP — energy services play for AGI power demand.
ProPetro's new PROPWR subsidiary provides mobile natural gas power generation to data centers. Data centers need power NOW and mobile gas turbines can deliver it faster than grid buildout. If PROPWR scales, it transforms PUMP from a cyclical oilfield services company into a power infrastructure play with higher multiples.
PUMP has $793M in PP&E (real physical equipment), $91M cash, and only $106M long-term debt. Tangible book value is $773M vs $1.75B market cap (2.3x TB). OCF is solid at $232M/yr. Equipment can potentially be repurposed for data center power generation.
Core business is deeply cyclical. Revenue already declining from $1.63B peak. If oil prices drop or Permian activity slows, revenue could halve. Net income was essentially zero in FY2025 ($824K). Operating margins are razor-thin (0.5%).
PROPWR only started generating revenue in Q3 2025. It is tiny relative to the core business. The mobile power generation market for data centers is competitive (Generac, Caterpillar, etc.). Leopold may be early, but the thesis is speculative.
| Current Price | $14.35 |
| Bull Case Price (by 2030-2035) | $50 |
| 10x Entry Price (Bull Case / 10) | $5 |
| Current Price vs 10x Entry | $14.35 ABOVE entry zone |
Rationale: If PROPWR scales to $1B revenue at 15% margins + core stays flat, total earnings ~$200M at 15x = $3B market cap = ~$25/share. More aggressive: PROPWR at $2B = $50. Entry for 10x: $5/share. Need oil crash + PROPWR failure.
PUMP at $14.35: Trading well above the 10x entry zone (would need a significant pullback for 10x potential).
AGI Score 4/10 — Moderate AGI impact. Leopold holds this position.
Floor estimate: Tangible book value per share is $7.45. This provides meaningful downside protection.
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL, yfinance, 10-K filings. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.