PUMP — ProPetro Holding Corp

Permian Basin oilfield services, hydraulic fracturing. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this?

Leopold holds PUMP as part of his energy thesis. ProPetro provides hydraulic fracturing and power generation in the Permian Basin. AGI score is only 4, but Leopold's thesis likely centers on: energy demand explosion from data centers, natural gas as bridge fuel for AI power, and PUMP's new PROPWR subsidiary providing mobile power generation to data centers.

$14.35
Stock Price
$1.7B
Market Cap
1.93x
Price / Tang. Book
$1.3B
Revenue (TTM)
$232M
Operating Cash Flow
$30M
Free Cash Flow
N/M
P/E (unprofitable)
4/10
AGI Score
Stock Price — PUMP

1. The Business

ProPetro is a Permian Basin oilfield services company. Core business is hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas E&P companies. 1,700 employees, $1.27B revenue. Recently launched PROPWR subsidiary providing mobile natural gas power generation for data centers and industrial use. Revenue declining from peak ($1.63B to $1.27B) as industry activity moderates.

2. Financial History

MetricFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue$154M$246M$1.3B$1.6B$1.4B$1.3B
Net Income-$44M-$20M$2M$86M-$138M$824K
Operating Cash Flow$139M$155M$300M$375M$252M$232M
Capital Expenditures$101M$144M$320M$371M$140M$186M
Operating Income-$131M-$69M-$3M$130M-$167M$6M
Gross Profit$39M$59MN/AN/AN/AN/A

Key Financial Metrics

3. Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet (Latest FY)Value
Total Assets$1.3B
Cash & Equivalents$91M
Property, Plant & Equipment$793M
Goodwill$920K
Intangible Assets$55M
Long-Term Debt$106M
Stockholders Equity$830M
Tangible Book Value$773M
Tangible Book / Share$7.45
Shares Outstanding103,838,000

4. Shares Outstanding & Dilution

YearShares OutstandingChange
FY2020100,911,000-
FY2021103,390,000+2.5%
FY2022105,868,000+2.4%
FY2023113,004,000+6.7%
FY2024105,469,000-6.7%
FY2025103,838,000-1.5%

5. Leopold Aschenbrenner Connection

Leopold Aschenbrenner holds PUMP — energy services play for AGI power demand.

6. Bull vs Bear

Bull: PROPWR Data Center Power Play

ProPetro's new PROPWR subsidiary provides mobile natural gas power generation to data centers. Data centers need power NOW and mobile gas turbines can deliver it faster than grid buildout. If PROPWR scales, it transforms PUMP from a cyclical oilfield services company into a power infrastructure play with higher multiples.

Bull: Asset-Heavy at Cheap Valuation

PUMP has $793M in PP&E (real physical equipment), $91M cash, and only $106M long-term debt. Tangible book value is $773M vs $1.75B market cap (2.3x TB). OCF is solid at $232M/yr. Equipment can potentially be repurposed for data center power generation.

Bear: Cyclical Oilfield Services

Core business is deeply cyclical. Revenue already declining from $1.63B peak. If oil prices drop or Permian activity slows, revenue could halve. Net income was essentially zero in FY2025 ($824K). Operating margins are razor-thin (0.5%).

Bear: PROPWR Is Nascent

PROPWR only started generating revenue in Q3 2025. It is tiny relative to the core business. The mobile power generation market for data centers is competitive (Generac, Caterpillar, etc.). Leopold may be early, but the thesis is speculative.

7. 10x Analysis — Working Backwards

Bull Case Target / 10 = Entry Price

Current Price$14.35
Bull Case Price (by 2030-2035)$50
10x Entry Price (Bull Case / 10)$5
Current Price vs 10x Entry$14.35 ABOVE entry zone

Rationale: If PROPWR scales to $1B revenue at 15% margins + core stays flat, total earnings ~$200M at 15x = $3B market cap = ~$25/share. More aggressive: PROPWR at $2B = $50. Entry for 10x: $5/share. Need oil crash + PROPWR failure.

8. Initial Assessment

Summary

PUMP at $14.35: Trading well above the 10x entry zone (would need a significant pullback for 10x potential).

AGI Score 4/10 — Moderate AGI impact. Leopold holds this position.

Floor estimate: Tangible book value per share is $7.45. This provides meaningful downside protection.

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL, yfinance, 10-K filings. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.