Bitcoin miner exploring AI/HPC pivot, largest facility in NA. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Leopold holds RIOT as part of his power infrastructure basket. Riot has the largest BTC mining facility in North America (Rockdale, TX) and is building a ~1 GW facility at Corsicana, TX. The company is "exploring AI/HPC" but has not committed like some peers. At $14/share, Riot trades at 1.83x book value. AGI score 6 reflects moderate potential: has the power but has not pivoted yet.
Riot Platforms is a vertically-integrated Bitcoin miner with three facilities: Rockdale TX (largest in NA), Corsicana TX (400 MW operational, 1 GW planned), and Kentucky (60 MW, expandable to 155 MW). 816 employees. Revenue $647M (FY2025). Exploring AI/HPC feasibility but currently focused on Bitcoin mining. Massive share dilution (79M to 341M shares in 5 years).
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12M | $213M | $259M | $281M | $377M | $647M |
| Net Income | -$13M | -$15M | -$510M | -$49M | $109M | -$663M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -$11M | -$86M | $530K | $33M | -$255M | -$573M |
| Capital Expenditures | $8M | $147M | $148M | $194M | $240M | $201M |
| Operating Income | -$19M | -$30M | -$513M | -$63M | $154M | -$622M |
| Balance Sheet (Latest FY) | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Assets | $3.9B |
| Cash & Equivalents | $234M |
| Property, Plant & Equipment | $1.5B |
| Goodwill | $122M |
| Intangible Assets | $30M |
| Long-Term Debt | $854M |
| Stockholders Equity | $2.9B |
| Tangible Book Value | $2.7B |
| Tangible Book / Share | $7.94 |
| Shares Outstanding | 340,719,298 |
| Year | Shares Outstanding | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 78,523,517 | - |
| FY2021 | 93,452,764 | +19.0% |
| FY2022 | 139,433,901 | +49.2% |
| FY2023 | 175,026,051 | +25.5% |
| FY2024 | 275,980,010 | +57.7% |
| FY2025 | 340,719,298 | +23.5% |
Leopold Aschenbrenner holds RIOT as part of his Bitcoin miner / power infrastructure basket.
Riot's Corsicana facility will have ~1 GW of operational capacity. At $5-10M per MW for AI/HPC data center value, that single site could be worth $5-10B vs current $5.3B market cap. If Riot commits to AI/HPC conversion, the re-rating from BTC miner to data center multiple could be dramatic. The power and land are already secured.
Riot holds significant BTC on its balance sheet. Net tangible book of $2.7B provides some downside protection. At $14/share, you are paying 1.83x book for a company with real physical infrastructure. If BTC price rises, Riot benefits directly.
Shares have gone from 79M to 341M in 5 years (4.3x dilution). OCF is deeply negative (-$573M). Net loss of $663M in FY2025. The company is burning cash while diluting shareholders. Long-term debt has grown from $0 to $854M.
Unlike IREN (which has GPU deployments) or CORZ (which has hyperscaler contracts), Riot is only "exploring feasibility." The pivot is talk, not action. The company may lack the technical expertise to execute. If it remains a pure BTC miner, the current valuation may be fair or expensive.
| Current Price | $14.04 |
| Bull Case Price (by 2030-2035) | $80 |
| 10x Entry Price (Bull Case / 10) | $8 |
| Current Price vs 10x Entry | $14.04 NEAR entry zone |
Rationale: If Corsicana 1 GW fully contracted for AI/HPC at $8M/MW = $8B + BTC holdings. Market cap potential $12-15B = $35-44/share. With BTC super-cycle: $80+. Entry for 10x: $8/share. Need BTC crash below $30K.
RIOT at $14.04: Trading near the 10x entry zone (worth deep due diligence).
AGI Score 6/10 — Moderate AGI impact. Leopold holds this position.
Floor estimate: Tangible book value per share is $7.94. This provides meaningful downside protection.
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL, yfinance, 10-K filings. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.