One of the world's largest integrated copper producers. Mines, smelters, and refineries in Peru and Mexico. Largest copper reserves globally. AGI Score: 9/10. Copper is the physical bottleneck for electrification and data centers. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Southern Copper scored 9/10 on AGI impact. AGI requires massive data center buildout, which requires massive amounts of copper for power cables, busbars, transformers, and cooling systems. A single large data center uses 20,000-40,000 tons of copper. SCCO has the world's largest copper reserves (44M+ tons) with a 50+ year mine life. At P/TB ~12.8x, it's expensive -- but copper prices may be entering a structural supercycle.
Southern Copper operates integrated copper mining, smelting, and refining operations in Peru and Mexico. Major mines: Toquepala and Cuajone (Peru), La Caridad and Buenavista (Mexico). Also produces molybdenum, zinc, silver, and gold as byproducts. 88.9% owned by Grupo Mexico. ~16,000 employees, 66% unionized. Vertically integrated from mine to refined copper rod.
Largest copper reserves in the world -- 50+ year mine life at current production rates. Low-cost producer (cash cost ~$1.50-2.00/lb vs copper price ~$4.00+/lb). Vertical integration from mine to finished product. New copper mines take 10-15 years to permit and build. Existing mines are a depleting, irreplaceable asset.
The electrification thesis: AI data centers, EVs, grid modernization, and renewable energy all require massive amounts of copper. Global copper demand is projected to double by 2035. Supply is constrained -- no major new mines coming online before 2028-2030. Copper prices could reach $6-8/lb (vs ~$4 today). SCCO's reserves become dramatically more valuable.
| Item | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $16.9B | $18.3B | $17.3B | $16.7B | $18.7B | $21.4B |
| PP&E (Net) | $9.5B | $9.5B | $9.6B | $9.8B | $9.9B | $10.3B |
| Cash | $2.6B | $3.5B | $2.3B | $1.8B | $3.5B | $4.9B |
| Goodwill | $42M | $42M | $42M | $42M | $42M | $42M |
| Intangible Assets | $25M | $21M | $21M | $18M | $16M | $16M |
| Total Liabilities | $16.9B | $18.3B | $17.3B | $16.7B | $18.7B | $21.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $6.5B | $6.2B | $6.3B | $6.3B | $5.8B | $6.8B |
| Stockholders' Equity | $7.3B | $8.2B | $8.1B | $7.5B | $9.2B | $11.1B |
| Tangible Book Value | $7.2B | $8.1B | $8.1B | $7.4B | $9.2B | $11.0B |
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.0B | $10.9B | $10.0B | $9.9B | $11.4B | $13.4B |
| Operating Income | $3.1B | $6.1B | $4.4B | $4.2B | $5.6B | $7.0B |
| Net Income | $1.6B | $3.4B | $2.6B | $2.4B | $3.4B | $4.3B |
| EPS (Diluted) | -- | $4.39 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $4.34 | $5.24 |
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.8B | $4.3B | $2.8B | $3.6B | $4.4B | $4.8B |
| CapEx | $592M | $892M | $948M | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.3B |
| Dividends Per Share | -- | -- | $3.50 | $4.00 | $2.10 | $3.10 |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.2B | $3.4B | $1.9B | $2.6B | $3.4B | $3.4B |
| Year | Shares Outstanding | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FY2012 | 848,346,000 | |
| FY2021 | 773,100,000 | -8.9% |
| FY2022 | 773,100,000 | +0.0% |
| FY2023 | 773,100,000 | +0.0% |
| FY2024 | 780,400,000 | +0.9% |
| FY2025 | 826,600,000 | +5.9% |
Current market cap: $141.1B. For 10x, need: $1T.
Current price: $170.83. 10x price: $1708.30.
At $141B, 10x = $1.4T. Would require copper to reach $8-10/lb AND SCCO to dramatically increase production. Unlikely at current prices. More realistic: 2-3x if copper hits $6+/lb. Entry for strong returns: copper price dip to $3.00-3.50/lb, stock at $80-100 range.
Copper is cyclical -- prices can drop 30-50% in recessions. Peru political instability (community protests, taxation changes). 88.9% controlled by Grupo Mexico -- minority shareholders have limited influence. Environmental and labor risks in mining. Substitution risk (aluminum can replace copper in some applications). Current valuation (33x P/E) prices in significant copper price appreciation.
Position in 52-week range: 65% from the bottom. -23.7% from 52-week high.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $141.1B | Copper Mining |
| Trailing P/E | 32.9x | Earnings yield: 3.0% |
| Forward P/E | 30.0x | |
| Price / Book | 12.78x | |
| Price / Tangible Book | 12.77x | Tangible book/share: $13.36 |
| EV/Revenue | 10.7x | |
| FCF Yield | 2.4% | FCF: $3.4B |
| Dividend Yield | 222.0% | Rate: $4.00/share |
| ROE | 42.7% |
Category: Copper Mining | AGI Score: 9/10 | Confidence: high
AGI Reasoning: Exceptional AGI beneficiary - copper is the critical commodity for AI infrastructure. DEMAND BOOST IS MASSIVE: Data centers need enormous amounts of copper for power distribution, cooling systems, and networking. Each GPU server rack requires significantly more copper wiring than traditional servers. Power grid upgrades to support AI compute demand require copper transmission lines. Electric vehicles (accelerated by AGI) are copper-intensive. This is the physical bottleneck thesis at its purest - you cannot build AI infrastructure without copper, and new mines take 7-10 years to develop. STRATEGIC ASSETS: Largest copper reserves in the world + existing production infrastructure = irreplaceable in short-to-medium term. Vertically integrated operations provide pricing power. MARGIN EXPANSION: Mining automation (autonomous trucks, AI-optimized extraction, predictive maintenance) reduces labor costs substantially. MINIMAL DISRUPTION: Copper substitutes (aluminum, fiber optics) exist but physics limits their applicability - electrical conductivity is fundamental. Innovation risk is low - even revolutionary new materials take decades to scale. This is a pure AGI infrastructure play.
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Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1001838), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.