SND — Smart Sand

Frac sand supplier — Northern White sand for hydraulic fracturing. Three mines (WI, IL), five transload terminals, SmartSystems wellsite storage. 10M tons annual capacity. 95% frac sand, 5% industrial. | AGI Score: 5/10 | P/TB: 0.61x | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this?

Trading at 0.61x book value. Frac sand is essential for oil/gas production (no substitute). AGI data center buildout drives natural gas demand, which drives drilling, which drives frac sand demand. Physical mines = irreplaceable assets.

$3.72
Stock Price
$148M
Market Cap
0.61x
Price / Book
$330M
Revenue (TTM)
$44M
Operating Cash Flow
$34M
Free Cash Flow
124.0x
P/E (trailing)
7.2x
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield
$23M
Cash
$36M
Total Debt
15%
Debt/Equity
0.36
Beta
$1.76
52-Week Low
$5.59
52-Week High
Stock Price — SND

1. Business Overview

Frac sand supplier — Northern White sand for hydraulic fracturing. Three mines (WI, IL), five transload terminals, SmartSystems wellsite storage. 10M tons annual capacity. 95% frac sand, 5% industrial.

Sector: Frac Sand / Oil Services | Employees: 318

2. AGI Impact Assessment

AGI Impact Assessment (Score: 5/10)

4
Demand Boost
4
Margin Expansion
4
Strategic Assets
3
Disruption Risk
7
Innovation Risk
medium
Confidence

Category: Minimal Impact

AGI presents mixed outlook. Near-term demand boost from AI data center power requirements driving natural gas drilling and LNG exports. However, innovation risk is high: AGI could accelerate development of alternative energy sources (fusion, advanced solar, geothermal) that reduce fossil fuel demand over 5-10 year horizon. Physical sand deposits and rail infrastructure provide some moat, but the asset becomes stranded if energy transition accelerates. Automation improves mining and logistics margins modestly. The 5-year AGI assumption creates tension between near-term gas demand and medium-term disruption.

3. Bull vs Bear Case

Bull Case

AI/data center power demand → more natural gas drilling → more frac sand needed. 0.61x book = buying mines at 61 cents on the dollar. Northern White sand is premium quality. 10M ton capacity = scale advantage. If nat gas demand surges, SND is a leveraged play.

Bear Case

Frac sand is a commodity — price competition is fierce. In-basin sand (Permian) competes with Northern White. Energy transition could reduce long-term oil/gas drilling. Small company with lumpy demand tied to drilling activity. Innovation risk: AGI could accelerate alternative energy.

4. Financial History (XBRL — Backwards 10x)

MetricFY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue$29M$43M$52M$48M$25M$127M$256M$296M$311M$330M
Net Income$12M$11M$-4M$2M$-3M$-51M$-703K$5M$3M$1M
Operating Income$20M$19M$26M$43M$-13M$-63M$-3M$-2M$3M$-4M
Operating Cash Flow$51M$45M$26M$32M$5M$31M$18M$44M
CapEx$3M$51M$96M$26M$9M$11M$13M$23M$7M$12M
Total Assets$173M$247M$320M$362M$428M$374M$360M$346M$342M$340M
Stockholders Equity$142M$190M$209M$244M$289M$241M$243M$242M$244M$240M
Shares Outstanding30,952,00040,393,00040,427,00040,135,00040,260,00041,775,00042,408,00038,948,00038,809,00039,049,000
Free Cash Flow*$-45M$19M$17M$21M$-7M$8M$11M$33M
Share Count Change+30.5%+0.1%-0.7%+0.3%+3.8%+1.5%-8.2%-0.4%+0.6%

*FCF = Operating Cash Flow - CapEx

5. Balance Sheet Snapshot

Balance Sheet ItemLatest FY
Total Assets$340M
PP&E (net)$223M
Cash & Equivalents$23M
Goodwill$0
Intangible Assets$4M
Total Liabilities$340M
Long-Term Debt$9M
Stockholders Equity$240M
Tangible Book Value$235M

Asset Quality Assessment

Goodwill: None reported — no goodwill on books = tangible book IS book value (good)

Intangible Assets: $4M

PP&E: $223M — physical assets that could be liquidated

Tangible Book Value: $235M ($6.04 per share)

6. Valuation & Floor Price

Valuation Metrics

MetricValueNotes
Book Value / Share$6.15Stockholders equity / shares
Tangible Book Value / Share$6.04Equity minus goodwill & intangibles
Price / Revenue0.45xMarket cap / TTM revenue
OCF Yield29.9%Operating cash flow / market cap
FCF Yield22.9%Free cash flow / market cap
Floor Price Estimate (60% TBV)$3.63Conservative: 60% of tangible book value per share

Floor Price Analysis

Tangible Book Value per share: $6.04

Conservative Floor (60% of TBV): $3.63 — At this price, you are buying hard assets at 60 cents on the dollar with margin of safety.

Current price $3.72 is below tangible book value ($6.04).

7. 10-K Filing Extracts

Item 1: Business Description (excerpt)

ITEM 1. — BUSINESS The Company We are a fully integrated frac and industrial sand supply and services company. We offer complete mine to wellsite proppant supply and logistics solutions to our frac sand customers. We produce low-cost, high quality Northern White sand, which is a premium sand used as a proppant to enhance hydrocarbon recovery rates in the hydraulic fracturing of oil and natural gas wells and for a variety of industrial applications. We also offer proppant logistics solutions to our customers through our in-basin transloading terminals and our SmartSystems TM wellsite proppant storage capabilities. In recent years, we have expanded our product line to offer Industrial Products Solutions (“IPS”) in order to diversify our customer base and markets we serve by offering sand for industrial uses. We market our products and services to oil and natural gas exploration and production companies, oilfield service companies and diversified industrial and commercial customers. We believe that, among other things, the size and favorable geologic characteristics of our sand reserves, the strategic location and logistical advantages of our facilities, our proprietary SmartDepot TM portable wellsite proppant storage silos, our proprietary SmartPath ® wellsite proppant management system, SmartBelt TM conveyor system, access to all Class I rail lines, and the industry experience of our senior management team make us as a highly attractive provider of sand and logistics ser

Item 7: MD&A (excerpt)

ITEM 7. — MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS Forward-Looking Statements The following discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations should be read together with Item 1, “Business,” and Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data,” of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. This discussion contains forward-looking statements as a result of many factors, including those set forth under Item 1, “Business—Forward-Looking Statements” and Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” and elsewhere in this report. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those discussed in or implied by forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to these differences include those discussed below and elsewhere in this report, particularly in Item 1A, “Risk Factors.” We use contribution margin, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow herein as non-GAAP measures of our financial performance. For further discussion of contribution margin, EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, see the section entitled “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” in this Item 7 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. We define various terms to simplify the presentation of information in this Report. All share amounts are presented in thousands. Factors Affecting Comparability of Our Financial Results Our historical results of op

8. Initial Assessment

Summary — SND (Smart Sand)

What assets exist? PP&E of $223M. Total assets of $340M Tangible book value of $235M. No goodwill — clean balance sheet.

Are buybacks real? No significant buybacks reported.

Is the business durable? Frac Sand / Oil Services with AGI score 5/10. Low AGI disruption risk — physical business that AGI does not easily replace.

What is the floor? At $3.63 (60% of TBV), downside is limited by hard assets. Current price $3.72 is above the floor estimate.

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL, yfinance, 10-K filing extracts, AGI scoring framework. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.