National homebuilder: entry-level, move-up, resort lifestyle. Taylor Morrison + Esplanade brands. Build-to-Rent (Yardly). Mortgage/title/insurance services. | Consumer Cyclical — Homebuilding | AGI Score: 4/10 | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Trading at tangible book value with 21% buybacks. Revenue stable at ~$8B. $791M net income, 13% ROE. Homebuilders carry land and homes under construction on the balance sheet at cost — so book value is generally reliable. No dividend (all cash goes to buybacks). $850M cash + massive land bank.
National homebuilder serving entry-level, move-up, and resort lifestyle segments. Operates under Taylor Morrison and Esplanade brands across multiple US markets. Also offers Build-to-Rent (Yardly brand), mortgage/title/insurance services. Revenue $7.8B, 12,997 closings in 2025. Focus on land strategy, operational efficiency, and digital marketing.
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Residential Construction |
| Employees | 3,000 |
| ROE | 13.0% |
| ROA | 7.6% |
| Gross Margin | 23.4% |
| Operating Margin | 12.3% |
| Profit Margin | 9.6% |
| 52-Week Range | $51.9 — $72.5 |
| Beta | 1.562 |
| Avg Volume | 1,067,296 |
| Short Ratio | 4.52 |
| EV / EBITDA | 6.0x |
| Analyst Target | $74.88889 (buy) |
| Float Shares | 96M |
| Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Item | Value | % of Assets | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS ($9.8B) | |||
| PP&E (net) | $259M | 2.6% | Physical assets |
| Cash & Equivalents | $850M | 8.6% | |
| Goodwill | $663M | 6.7% | Intangible — scrutinize |
| Other Intangibles | $637K | 0.0% | |
| Other Assets | $8.1B | 82.0% | Receivables, investments, etc. |
| LIABILITIES | |||
| Long-Term Debt | $2.3B | 23.3% | |
| Other Liabilities | $1.2B | 12.6% | |
| EQUITY | |||
| Stockholders' Equity | $6.3B | 64.1% | |
| Tangible Book Value | $5.6B | Equity minus goodwill & intangibles | |
| Tangible Book / Share | $58.60 | vs price $59.20 | |
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.6B | $7.5B | $8.2B | $7.4B | $8.2B | $8.1B |
| Net Income | $250M | $682M | $1.1B | $770M | $887M | $791M |
| Total Assets | $7.7B | $8.7B | $8.5B | $8.7B | $9.3B | $9.8B |
| Equity | $3.6B | $4.0B | $4.6B | $5.3B | $5.9B | $6.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | $2.9B | $3.3B | $2.5B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B |
| Cash | $533M | $833M | $724M | $799M | $487M | $850M |
| OCF | $1.1B | $377M | $1.1B | $806M | $210M | $817M |
| PP&E | $98M | $155M | $202M | $295M | $233M | $259M |
| Goodwill | $663M | $663M | $663M | $663M | $663M | $663M |
| Shares (Diluted) | 129M | 128M | 116M | 110M | 107M | 101M |
| Period | Shares (Diluted) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-31 | 129,170,000 | |
| 2021-12-31 | 128,019,000 | -0.9% |
| 2022-12-31 | 116,221,000 | -9.2% |
| 2023-12-31 | 110,145,000 | -5.2% |
| 2024-12-31 | 106,846,000 | -3.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 100,707,000 | -5.7% |
| Total Change | -22.0% |
Significant buyback activity. Share count declining 22% over the period. This mechanically increases EPS and book value per share even with no underlying growth.
Current EPS: $7.86 | Current Book/Share: $62.65 | Current Price: $59.20
| Scenario | 7yr Future Price | Entry for 10x | vs Current | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $161.59 | $16.16 | +266% below | 8% EPS growth, 12x exit P/E |
| Bull Case | $313.50 | $31.35 | +89% below | 15% EPS growth, 15x exit P/E |
| Buyback Only | $106.06 | $10.61 | +458% | No revenue growth, buybacks continue at current rate, 12x P/E |
| Demand Boost | 3/10 | How much AGI increases demand for this company's products |
| Margin Expansion | 5/10 | How much AGI reduces costs / expands margins |
| Strategic Assets | 4/10 | Unique assets that become more valuable with AGI |
| Disruption Risk | 4/10 | Risk that AGI disrupts the core business model |
| Innovation Risk | 5/10 | Risk of being out-innovated by AGI-native competitors |
| Overall AGI Score | 4/10 | Category: minimal_impact |
Reasoning: AGI modestly benefits homebuilding through design automation, construction robotics, and supply chain optimization. However, construction remains physical and labor-intensive with slow automation adoption (5-10 years). Housing demand is driven by demographics/interest rates, not AGI. Innovation risk moderate - 3D-printed homes or modular construction could disrupt but require infrastructure buildout. Cyclical business largely orthogonal to AGI.
TMHC (Taylor Morrison) trades at 0.91x book value (1.01x tangible book) with $791M net income on a $5.7B market cap (13.9% earnings yield). ROE of 13.0%. Shares have declined 22% over the measurement period through buybacks.
Verdict: WATCHLIST — Solid AMR Candidate. Trading at tangible book with 21% buybacks, $791M net income, and a massive land bank carried at cost. U.S. housing shortage is structural — builders have pricing power. The $663M goodwill (unchanged since 2020) is the only blemish. 13% ROE with capital returned via buybacks = compounding machine. Homebuilder book values are generally reliable because land and homes are carried at the lower of cost or market. Entry zone: $48-52 (floor based on land + WIP value minus debt).
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1562476), yfinance, 10-K filing, AGI scoring framework. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.