Regulated electric utility serving 834K customers in New Mexico and Texas. Formerly PNM Resources. AGI Score: 9/10. Texas subsidiary (TNMP) seeing 13.7% data center load growth. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
TXNM scored 9/10 on AGI impact with P/TB of just 1.88 -- one of the cheapest utilities exposed to Texas data center growth. The Texas subsidiary (TNMP) provides transmission and distribution in a region seeing explosive data center development. At $6.4B market cap, this is small enough that data center load growth could meaningfully move earnings. The New Mexico subsidiary (PNM) adds regulated stability.
TXNM Energy (formerly PNM Resources) operates two regulated electric utilities: PNM in New Mexico (generation, transmission, distribution) and TNMP in Texas (transmission and distribution only). Combined service to ~834,000 customers. PNM is transitioning to coal-free by 2031, carbon-free by 2040. TNMP operates in the ERCOT market and is seeing significant data center interconnection requests.
Regulated monopoly in defined service territories. TNMP's transmission infrastructure in Texas is positioned in data center growth corridors. PNM owns generation assets in New Mexico that benefit from the state's renewable energy mandates. Dual-state operation provides regulatory diversification.
Texas is the #2 data center market in the US (behind Virginia). TNMP's service territory is seeing 13.7% load growth from data center interconnections -- far above the typical utility 1-2%. As AGI scales, Texas power demand will accelerate. TNMP earns on transmission/distribution capital investment, not generation -- so it avoids fuel cost risk. Rate base growth of 8-10% annually is achievable.
| Item | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $7.9B | $8.7B | $9.3B | $10.3B | $11.2B | $12.1B |
| PP&E (Net) | $24M | $25M | $27M | $29M | -- | -- |
| Cash | $48M | $1M | $4M | $2M | $4M | $18M |
| Goodwill | $278M | $278M | $278M | $278M | $278M | $278M |
| Intangible Assets | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Total Liabilities | $7.9B | $8.7B | $9.3B | $10.3B | $11.2B | $12.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $2.7B | $3.5B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.3B | $5.1B |
| Stockholders' Equity | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.4B | $2.6B | $3.4B |
| Tangible Book Value | $1.8B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.3B | $3.2B |
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $359M | $1.8B | $2.2B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.2B |
| Operating Income | $19M | $308M | $394M | $231M | $453M | $441M |
| Net Income | $12M | $212M | $185M | $107M | $259M | $170M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.10 | $2.27 | $1.97 | $1.02 | $2.67 | $1.48 |
| Operating Cash Flow | $486M | $548M | $567M | $551M | $508M | $584M |
| CapEx | $679M | $935M | $913M | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| Dividends Per Share | $1.25 | $1.33 | $1.41 | $1.49 | $1.57 | $1.65 |
| Free Cash Flow | -$193M | -$387M | -$345M | -$525M | -$739M | -$611M |
| Year | Shares Outstanding | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 80,157,000 | |
| FY2021 | 86,070,000 | +7.4% |
| FY2022 | 86,122,000 | +0.1% |
| FY2023 | 86,296,000 | +0.2% |
| FY2024 | 90,534,000 | +4.9% |
| FY2025 | 101,507,000 | +12.1% |
Current market cap: $6.4B. For 10x, need: $64.1B.
Current price: $58.85. 10x price: $588.50.
At $6.4B, 10x = $64B. Would require TXNM to grow rate base from ~$7B to $25B+ and trade at 2.5-3x book. Aggressive but not impossible if Texas data center growth continues at current pace for 10 years. Entry for strong returns: P/TB < 1.5 ($47-48 range).
ERCOT grid reliability concerns (2021 winter storm). New Mexico regulatory environment can be restrictive. Coal retirement costs in PNM. Small company size limits financial flexibility. Interest rate sensitivity. TNMP is transmission/distribution only -- it doesn't own generation, limiting upside from power price spikes.
Position in 52-week range: 94% from the bottom. -1.1% from 52-week high.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | $6.4B | Regulated Utility |
| Trailing P/E | 39.8x | Earnings yield: 2.5% |
| Forward P/E | 18.1x | |
| Price / Book | 1.88x | |
| Price / Tangible Book | 2.02x | Tangible book/share: $31.23 |
| EV/Revenue | 5.3x | |
| FCF Yield | -9.5% | FCF: -$611M |
| Dividend Yield | 288.0% | Rate: $1.69/share |
| ROE | 5.6% |
Category: Regulated Utility | AGI Score: 9/10 | Confidence: high
AGI Reasoning: Perfect AGI beneficiary. Data center electricity demand is exploding and TNMP already seeing 13.7% load growth from data centers. Regulated utility model allows cost pass-through and guaranteed returns on infrastructure investment. Transmission/distribution infrastructure is a decade-long physical bottleneck that cannot be bypassed. AGI training and inference creates insatiable power demand. New Mexico renewables buildout positions PNM well. Zero innovation risk - electrons are electrons. Minimal disruption - regulated monopoly. Pure AGI demand play.
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Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1108426), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.