The VG ticker changed hands. Originally Vista Gold Corp (gold exploration). Now Venture Global (LNG, IPO Jan 2025). AGI score 8 was computed for Venture Global. P/TB 0.58 was from Vista Gold. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
The VG ticker now belongs to Venture Global, Inc. — a $32B LNG export company that IPO'd in January 2025. The original Vista Gold Corp (tiny gold exploration company, ~$16M total assets, zero revenue) lost this ticker. The AGI score of 8 was computed for Venture Global's LNG business. The P/TB of 0.58 came from Vista Gold's XBRL data. These are two completely different companies.
Vista Gold is a pre-revenue gold exploration company. It has NEVER generated revenue in any year from 2019-2025. It burns $5-7M/year in cash, owns mineral properties (Mt Todd gold project in Australia), and has 125M shares outstanding. This is a speculative mining play — no floor can be computed. Does not meet our criteria at any price.
Venture Global is a US LNG producer and exporter with five Gulf Coast projects totaling 143.8 mtpa peak capacity. Uses modular mid-scale liquefaction trains for faster construction. Revenue from 20-year fixed-price contracts with major global buyers.
AGI's massive electricity demand drives natural gas consumption for power generation. LNG export infrastructure takes 5-10 years to build (physical bottleneck). Long-term contracts lock in revenue regardless of spot price volatility.
If all 5 projects reach full capacity (143.8 mtpa), revenue could reach $25-30B with EBITDA margins of 60-70%. At 8-10x EV/EBITDA, enterprise value = $120-210B. After $35B debt, equity = $85-175B on 488M shares = $174-358/share. Even at 50% probability-weight: $87-179/share.
Bull case target: $130/share. Entry for 10x: ~$13. Current price is $13.10 — right at the 10x entry for this scenario.
$35B in debt is enormous. Construction delays or cost overruns on the remaining projects could strain the balance sheet. LNG demand could soften if renewables scale faster than expected. At 4.77x book, there is no margin of safety. Floor is uncertain given the leverage.
Venture Global is a legitimate AGI energy play — LNG is the bridge fuel for data center power demand. The 20-year contracts provide revenue visibility. But $35B debt on $32B market cap is aggressive. The 10x math works if projects deliver on time and LNG demand holds. High-conviction but high-leverage bet.
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 783324 for Vista Gold, yfinance for Venture Global), 10-K filings. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.