VOYA — Voya Financial (Preferred B / Common)

Workplace benefits, retirement plan administration, and asset management. AGI Score 4. P/TB 0.72. Steady buybacks. Note: VOYA-PB is the preferred; analysis covers common (VOYA). | Analysis date: 2026-03-13

Why are we looking at this?

Voya Financial is a workplace benefits and asset management company. It administers 401(k), 403(b), and 457 plans for ~10 million participant accounts with $796B in assets under administration. AGI Score of 4 — this is a "labor margin play" meaning AGI can automate much of the plan administration, customer service, and advisory functions. The question: at P/TB 0.72 and 1.26x price/book, with steady earnings and buybacks, is the below-book valuation justified?

$66.25

Stock Price (VOYA)

$6.3B

Market Cap

1.26x

Price / Book

$8.19B

Revenue (FY2025)

$1.29B

Operating Cash Flow

$733M

Net Income

$6.82B

Stockholders' Equity

$6.29

EPS (FY2025)

2.8%

Dividend Yield

Stock Price — VOYA

1. The Business

Voya has three segments:

Retirement — 401(k)/403(b)/457 plan administration and recordkeeping for ~10M participants, $796B assets under administration
Investment Management — $337B AUM across fixed income, equities, and multi-asset strategies
Health Solutions — Stop-loss insurance and voluntary employee benefits

2. Financial History — Steady Compounder

Year	Revenue	Net Income	EPS	OCF	Shares
FY2019	$1.81B	-$766M	$2.17	$1.31B	141.0M
FY2020	$2.22B	$385M	$2.37	$1.21B	127.4M
FY2021	$4.23B	$2.89B	$16.52	$72M	116.7M
FY2022	$5.92B	$433M	$4.30	$1.35B	100.7M
FY2023	$7.35B	$729M	$5.42	$1.64B	102.7M
FY2024	$8.05B	$742M	$6.17	$1.35B	99.2M
FY2025	$8.19B	$733M	$6.29	$1.29B	95.8M

Shares reduced from 141M to 95.8M (32% buyback). Revenue grew from $1.8B to $8.2B. EPS grew from $2.17 to $6.29 (2.9x growth). Steady, compounding business.

3. Balance Sheet

Item	FY2025	Notes
Total Assets	$178.9B	Mostly policyholder/client assets
Goodwill	$804M	From acquisitions (Benefitfocus, etc.)
Intangibles	$874M	Customer relationships, contracts
Long-Term Debt	$1.52B
Total Debt	$4.85B	Includes insurance-related obligations
Stockholders' Equity	$6.82B	Book/share: $52.78
Tangible Equity	$5.14B	$53.65/share (ex-goodwill-intangibles)

4. 10x Analysis — Working Backwards

Bull Case: $663/share

AI/AGI dramatically reduces Voya's cost structure (claims processing, customer service, advisory automated). Operating margins expand 5-10 points. Revenue grows to $12-15B as workplace benefits consolidate. Net income reaches $1.5-2B. On continued buybacks (shares to 60M), EPS = $25-33. At 15x P/E: $375-500.

Maximum optimism with full AI margin expansion + continued buybacks to 50M shares: EPS $30-40, at 15x = $450-600.

Bull case target: $663/share. Entry for 10x: ~$66. Current price is $66.25 — at the 10x entry.

Bear Case

AGI disrupts the retirement/benefits industry — robo-advisors and automated plan administration reduce willingness to pay for Voya's services. Competition from Fidelity, Empower, and fintech erodes margins. Stock falls to $35-45 (near tangible book). Downside is limited by the real asset base ($5.14B tangible equity).

Verdict

Voya is a boring compounder trading near book value with consistent buybacks. The AGI Score of 4 means this is more of a "gets disrupted" story than a "benefits from AGI" story. However, the near-book valuation and steady earnings provide a reasonable floor. The 10x math requires significant margin expansion AND continued buybacks — plausible but not probable for a financial services company. More likely a 2-4x play over 10 years. Interesting as a value compounder, not as a 10x bet.

Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1535929), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.