Nuclear + gas power producer with 41 GW capacity. AGI Score 9/10. Leopold previously held (sold after big gain). P/TB 20.4x. | Analysis date: 2026-03-13
Vistra owns 6.4 GW of nuclear capacity (including the Comanche Peak plant in Texas) and 41 GW total generation. Leopold Aschenbrenner held VST and sold after a massive gain — the stock went from ~$30 to $220. At $159 now, it's 20x tangible book and 72x trailing earnings. The sector knowledge file says: "VST at 20x book and 72x earnings is a momentum trade, not a value investment." We need to verify if there's a price at which the 10x math works.
Vistra is an integrated retail electricity provider and wholesale power generator. 41 GW of capacity across a diverse portfolio, serving 5 million retail customers in 18 states.
| Fuel Type | Capacity | % of Total | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas | ~24 GW | 59% | Combined cycle + peaking |
| Coal | ~8.6 GW | 21% | Being retired/transitioned |
| Nuclear | 6.4 GW | 16% | Comanche Peak (TX) — crown jewel |
| Solar/Battery | ~1.6 GW | 4% | Growing segment |
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.4B | $12.1B | $13.7B | $14.8B | $17.2B | $17.7B |
| Net Income | $622M | -$1.26B | -$1.21B | $1.49B | $2.81B | $944M |
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.34B | -$210M | $478M | $5.45B | $4.56B | $4.07B |
| CapEx | $1.26B | $1.03B | $1.30B | $1.68B | $2.08B | $2.75B |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.30 | -$2.69 | -$3.26 | $3.58 | $7.00 | $2.18 |
| Shares Outstanding | 491M | 482M | 421M | 376M | 351M | 346M |
| Item | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | $41.55B | |
| PP&E | $19.85B | Power plants — 48% of total assets |
| Goodwill | $2.81B | From acquisitions |
| Intangible Assets | $2.44B | Contracts, customer relationships |
| Cash | $795M | |
| Stockholders' Equity | $5.11B | |
| Long-Term Debt | $17.20B | Debt/Equity = 3.4x — high leverage |
| Total Debt (yfinance) | $20.42B | |
| Tangible Book Value | -$140M | Equity - Goodwill - Intangibles = NEGATIVE |
Thesis: Nuclear fleet commands massive premium pricing for data center PPAs. Wholesale power prices rise 50-100% from data center demand. Coal plants retired and replaced with higher-margin gas/solar. Continued buybacks reduce share count to 250M.
| 2036 Normalized EPS (nuclear premium + data center load) | $15-20 |
| Bull P/E for scarce nuclear assets | 18x |
| 2036 Price Target | $270-360 |
| Divide by 10x | $27-36 |
10x Entry Price: ~$27-36. VST traded at ~$30 in 2023. The stock has already done a ~5x from there. Getting a 10x from $159 would require a $1,590 stock price — which needs ~$90 EPS at 18x P/E. That's 40x current earnings. Extremely unlikely. VST is NOT a 10x from here. The 10x trade already happened.
Leopold held VST in his Situational Awareness LP portfolio and sold after a massive gain. VST was one of his best-performing positions — bought in the $30-60 range, sold in the $150-220 range. His exit confirms the pattern: he rotates from large-cap winners into smaller, cheaper plays. Leopold's exit is a strong signal that the easy money has been made.
VST is a good business with a genuine nuclear advantage and data center tailwind. But at $159, 20x book, 72x trailing earnings, the stock is priced for perfection. The 10x entry was $27-36, which existed in 2023. Leopold already took that trade and exited.
No floor computable — tangible book is negative, leverage is high (4x), earnings are volatile. In a worst case (wholesale power crash + high interest rates), VST could revisit $30-50. But buying at $159 hoping for $1,500 is speculation, not value investing.
If interested: Wait for a major pullback to $60-80 (which would require a nuclear sentiment reversal or broad market crash). At that level, it becomes a potential 5x. But even then, the leverage and volatility disqualify it from "very little chance of losing money."
Data sources: SEC EDGAR XBRL (CIK 1692819), yfinance, 10-K filing. Analysis date: 2026-03-13.