Investment Research Tracker

120 companies analyzed. Sorted by proximity to 10x entry (closest first). | Loading prices...

120
Analyzed
9
Near Entry
0
TARGET
114
WATCHLIST
6
PASS

Verdict key: PASS Does not meet our criteria WATCHLIST Interesting but not at the right price TARGET Meets criteria -- monitoring for entry POSITION We own it

All Companies

Ticker Company Mkt Cap (Live) Tang. Book P/TB FCF AGI Bull MCap 10x Entry Bull Thesis Prob. Floor MCap Verdict Analysis
STT-PG STT (State Street (Preferred G)) $33.9B $18.7B 0.26 4 STT-PG preferred trades at $45 vs $100 par = 55% discount to par WATCHLIST Analysis
TK Teekay Corp $1.0B $1.9B 1.53 $142M 4 $14.6B $1.5B Trading at 0.52x book — massive discount for what is essentially a holding company WATCHLIST Analysis
CIFR Cipher Digital $5.7B $728M 7.07 -$1.5B 9 $37.8B $3.8B Bull case (75% pipeline at $12M/MW): $37.8B. WATCHLIST Analysis
BTBT Analysis — Bit Digital Deep Dive $529M $431M 0.59 -$459M 9 $5.2B $525M WATCHLIST Analysis
AES Corporation $10.1B $6.7B 2.49 -$3.1B 8 $71.0B-110B $7.1B-11.0B 37% $5.0B-8.0B PASS Analysis
APLD Applied Digital $7.9B $498M 5.46 -$1.6B 10 $50.0B-76.0B $5.0B-7.6B At $27.48, the market is pricing APLD at or above the midpoint of our bull case. The probability-weighted expected value is ~$20, which means 60% WATCHLIST Analysis
IREN Limited (IREN) $13.9B $1.8B 5.53 -$1.2B 8 $64.0B-150B $6.4B-15.0B 4.5 GW power pipeline = scarce, irreplaceable asset 30% WATCHLIST Analysis
GIII G-III Apparel $1.2B $1.7B 0.70 $324M 4 $7.1B $706M Net cash balance sheet — almost zero long-term debt ($3M), $181M cash WATCHLIST Analysis
TMHC Taylor Morrison $5.7B $5.6B 0.91 $738M 4 $30.2B $3.0B 21% share buyback — aggressive capital return WATCHLIST Analysis
LAD Lithia Motors $6.2B $4.2B 0.94 $774M 4 $30.3B $3.0B Largest auto dealer globally — scale advantages in purchasing, financing, and operations PASS Analysis
MTG MGIC Investment $5.6B $5.1B 1.10 $566M 4 $27.2B $2.7B BUYBACK MACHINE: 359M → 235M shares in 5 years (35% reduction!) WATCHLIST Analysis
CNX Resources (CNX) $5.8B $4.0B 1.34 $550M 8 $27.0B $2.7B Bull case ($8/Mcf gas): $27B market cap. WATCHLIST Analysis
ACT Enact Holdings $5.8B $5.4B 1.07 $1.1B 4 $26.0B $2.6B Mortgage insurance is required by GSEs for WATCHLIST Analysis
D Dominion Energy $54.7B $27.6B 1.95 -$9.0B 9 $242B $24.2B WATCHLIST Analysis
EQT Corporation Analysis - Automated Warren Buffett $39.7B $25.1B 1.67 $1.8B 8 $156B-187B $15.6B-18.7B $28.0T-35.0T WATCHLIST Analysis
LPG Dorian LPG $1.4B $1.0B 1.24 $102M 4 $3.6B $364M 8.2% dividend yield — high cash distribution WATCHLIST Analysis
PNW Pinnacle West Capital $12.2B $6.5B 1.73 -$602M 9 $25.0B-40.0B $2.5B-4.0B To get 10x, you need to buy at $15-28/share. WATCHLIST Analysis
ALLY Financial $11.4B $15.3B 0.86 4 $29.2B $2.9B Largest all-digital bank — no physical branch network costs WATCHLIST Analysis
META Meta Platforms $1.7T $189.0B 7.61 $23.4B 8 $3.0T-5.0T $300B-500B Revenue $350-400B by 2031, AI monetization works, 30x P/E. 3B user network + AI agents monetize through Meta platforms. 60% $120B-225B WATCHLIST Analysis
MHK Mohawk Industries $6.6B $7.1B 0.78 $661M 4 $14.6B $1.5B World's largest flooring manufacturer — scale and vertical integration advantages WATCHLIST Analysis
BE Bloom Energy $44.3B $791M 57.57 $188M 8 $72.0B-108B $7.2B-10.8B At $44B, the downside to the floor is $2.0B-4.0B WATCHLIST Analysis
LITE Lumentum Holdings $47.7B -$391M 56.30 -$21M 8 $21.4B-32.1B $2.1B-3.2B WATCHLIST Analysis
COHR Coherent Corp $47.3B -$1.7B 5.53 $130M 8 $18.7B-24.4B $1.9B-2.4B $400M-500M WATCHLIST Analysis
AEE Ameren Corp $30.2B $13.1B 2.26 -$1.5B 9 $30.4B $3.0B WATCHLIST Analysis
AEP American Electric Power $71.0B $32.2B 2.28 -$5.1B 9 $70.3B $7.0B WATCHLIST Analysis
AIG American International Group $42.1B $37.4B 1.02 $11.3B 5 AIG at 1.0x book with aggressive buybacks and steady $3B+ net income is safe — but 10x is a stretch. Insurance companies rarely achieve 10x returns over any reasonable timeframe. WATCHLIST Analysis
ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. $21.2B $1.4B 15.57 $207M 9 Astera is perfectly positioned at the nexus of AGI infrastructure demands. AI training and inference require massive data movement, memory bandwidth, and interconnect performance—exactly what Aster... WATCHLIST Analysis
AMAT Applied Materials $278B $16.5B 12.81 $4.3B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. $334B $21.2B 5.30 $4.6B 9 AMD is a direct AGI beneficiary through insatiable demand for AI compute. Instinct MI350 GPUs, EPYC CPUs, and ROCm software directly power AI training/inference at scale. OpenAI partnership (6GW de... WATCHLIST Analysis
AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. $2.3T $378.6B 5.56 $23.8B 9 Amazon is one of the strongest AGI beneficiaries. AWS is the leading cloud infrastructure provider that will host and train AGI systems - demand for compute, storage, and AI services will explode. ... WATCHLIST Analysis
ANET Arista Networks $174B $11.7B 14.07 $3.4B 9 Cloud Titans + AI buildout = decades of networking demand WATCHLIST Analysis
APH Amphenol $165B $684M 12.28 $3.3B 9 AI data center buildout drives multi-year IT Datacom growth WATCHLIST Analysis
ARE Alexandria Real Estate $8.7B $19.1B 0.55 $1.3B 8 WATCHLIST Analysis
ARM Holdings $127B $5.2B 16.34 $825M 9 Architectural monopoly with 10-15 year switching costs WATCHLIST Analysis
AVGO Broadcom $1.6T -$48.8B 5.75 $25.4B 9 Custom AI accelerator market growing 60%+ annually WATCHLIST Analysis
AVT Avnet, Inc. $5.0B $4.2B 1.01 $112M 6 Avnet is a low-margin distributor in a cyclical downturn. WATCHLIST Analysis
AXS-PE Axis Capital Preferred E $8.0B $6.1B 0.26 -$13.0B 4 PASS Analysis
BIO-B Bio-Rad Laboratories (B Shares) $7.2B $6.7B 0.97 $257M 5 Bio-Rad at 0.97x book with a clean balance sheet, 54% gross margins, and $532M OCF is objectively cheap. WATCHLIST Analysis
BMNR BitMine Immersion Technologies $9.6B $8.7B 0.76 -$10M 4 WATCHLIST Analysis
BSET Bassett Furniture Industries $122M $151M 0.73 $7M 4 PASS Analysis
BTU Peabody Energy $4.2B $3.6B 1.18 $82M 7 BTU has already had its re-rating (3.6x from 52-week low). The stock is near book value with manageable debt. But coal is a terminal industry — the question is how slowly it dies. WATCHLIST Analysis
BXC BlueLinx Holdings $431M $463M 0.70 $10M 4 WATCHLIST Analysis
CACI International $13.4B -$2.2B 3.23 $409M 8 $13.5B $1.3B WATCHLIST Analysis
CB Chubb Limited $127B $53.3B 1.71 $12.1B 7 Chubb is the highest-quality name on this list. WATCHLIST Analysis
CCRN Cross Country Healthcare $320M $231M 0.96 $43M 4 WATCHLIST Analysis
CEG Constellation Energy $109B $14.2B 6.47 $1.3B 9 Irreplaceable nuclear fleet with 20-30 year remaining life WATCHLIST Analysis
CIEN Ciena Corp $47.6B $2.0B 17.04 $699M 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
CLF Deep Value Analysis — Cleveland-Cliffs $5.3B $3.4B 0.86 -$125M 7 Cleveland-Cliffs is North America's largest flat-rolled steel producer and largest iron ore pellet manufacturer, trading at 0.86x tangible book value ($5.1B market cap vs $3.2B tangible book). WATCHLIST Analysis
CORZ Core Scientific $2.4B-8.3B $1.0B-2.5B At $16.24, the downside to the floor is 40% $2.0B-3.0B WATCHLIST Analysis
CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings $112B $3.0B 25.21 $1.6B 9 AI-driven security demand is structurally accelerating WATCHLIST Analysis
CWEN-A Clearway Energy Inc Class A $4.6B $3.5B 2.34 $208M 8 $14.5B $1.5B WATCHLIST Analysis
DEA Easterly Government Properties $1.1B $1.2B 0.77 $159M 6 DEA is a high-quality income vehicle. WATCHLIST Analysis
DELL Technologies $98.6B -$25.5B Neg. -$1.4B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
DT Dynatrace $11.3B $1.3B 4.09 $473M 9 AI infrastructure explosion drives observability demand WATCHLIST Analysis
EE Excelerate Energy $4.0B $1.6B 1.65 $208M 7 Excelerate owns physical bottleneck infrastructure (FSRUs) that benefits from AGI-driven gas demand. The $461M OCF on $3.8B market cap (12% OCF yield) is attractive. But net income is thin, and the... WATCHLIST Analysis
EIG Employers Holdings $772M $906M 0.84 $43M 5 WATCHLIST Analysis
EQIX Equinix $95.3B $6.9B 6.73 $2.8B 9 AI infrastructure buildout drives multi-year demand WATCHLIST Analysis
ES Eversource Energy $27.7B $12.0B 1.71 $761M 8 WATCHLIST Analysis
ESNT Essent Group $5.6B $5.7B 0.95 $351M 5 Essent is an excellent business WATCHLIST Analysis
ETN Eaton Corporation $138B -$1.4B 7.13 $2.6B 9 Data center electrical spending is the fastest-growing end market WATCHLIST Analysis
EU enCore Energy $374M $318M 1.50 -$38M 8 WATCHLIST Analysis
FLXS Flexsteel Industries $246M $168M 1.38 $22M 5 WATCHLIST Analysis
FSLR First Solar $21.5B $9.5B 2.25 $964M 8 First Solar is the strongest fundamental company in this batch. Fortress balance sheet (net cash $2.15B), growing revenue/earnings, and direct AGI tailwind. The floor is well-supported by tangible ... WATCHLIST Analysis
GEV GE Vernova $229B $7.1B 20.35 $5.3B 9 Gas turbine orderbook at multi-decade highs WATCHLIST Analysis
GHC Graham Holdings $4.6B $3.1B 0.95 $234M 3 $4.6B $462M GHC is a conservative Buffett-style holding company trading near tangible book with aggressive buybacks and a legacy of shareholder-friendly management. WATCHLIST Analysis
GLXY Galaxy Digital $8.4B $2.9B 2.11 $35.1B 8 Galaxy is a legitimate AGI infrastructure play through Helios. But the crypto overlay adds massive volatility and makes the floor unreliable. At $22, you are near tangible book but the book itself ... WATCHLIST Analysis
GM General Motors $69.8B $58.8B 1.11 $8.6B 4 $65.3B $6.5B WATCHLIST Analysis
GNRC Generac Holdings $12.5B $496M 4.74 $92M 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
GOOG Alphabet $3.7T $381.6B 8.96 $38.1B 10 Alphabet is the best-positioned company in the world for AGI. WATCHLIST Analysis
HIG-PG Hartford Financial Services — Preferred G $18.6B $16.5B 0.37 $5.8B 7 WATCHLIST Analysis
HUT 8 Corp $5.7B $1.5B 3.97 -$372M 8 $16.6B $1.7B WATCHLIST Analysis
IDA IDACORP $7.7B $3.6B 2.16 -$739M 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
INTC Deep Dive — Intel Corporation Intel is not a "safe" investment. It is a turnaround play on the most capital-intensive business in the world. The downside is bounded by physical assets ($105B PP&E) and strategic importance (US g... 15% WATCHLIST Analysis
JBGS JBG SMITH Properties $901M $1.1B 0.75 $312M 7 The aggressive buyback below book is textbook capital allocation. But operating fundamentals are deteriorating badly. WATCHLIST Analysis
JCI Johnson Controls International $82.6B -$7.3B 6.25 $2.8B 8 $79.6B $8.0B JCI (Johnson Controls International) WATCHLIST Analysis
KLAC KLA Corporation $193B $2.5B 35.20 $3.2B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
KRC Kilroy Realty $3.4B $5.6B 0.62 $419M 3 KRC is a real business generating real cash flow (~$500M FCF on $3.4B market cap = 15% FCF yield) trading at a big discount to book value (0.62x). WATCHLIST Analysis
L Loews Corp $22.5B $19.2B 1.20 $1.5B 5 WATCHLIST Analysis
LEN-B Lennar Corp (Class B) $24.0B $18.5B 1.02 $12.2B 5 $23.8B $2.4B WATCHLIST Analysis
LHX L3Harris Technologies $68.3B -$6.9B 3.48 $2.7B 8 $67.3B $6.7B WATCHLIST Analysis
LIN Linde plc $222B -$70M 5.81 $4.8B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
LNG Cheniere Energy $53.9B $12.9B 6.72 $2.6B 8 -- High-Quality Infrastructure, Not a 10x WATCHLIST Analysis
LRCX Lam Research $275B $8.1B 26.99 $4.8B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
LUMN Lumen Technologies $6.8B -$5.6B Neg. -$5.9B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
MEI Methode Electronics $208M $282M 0.31 $75M 5 WATCHLIST Analysis
MOS Mosaic Company $9.3B $11.2B 0.77 -$433M 5 WATCHLIST Analysis
MSFT Microsoft $3.0T $201.4B 7.69 $53.6B 10 Microsoft is arguably the highest-quality business in the world: WATCHLIST Analysis
MU Micron Technology, Inc. $472B $52.6B 8.03 $444M 10 Micron is a pure AGI infrastructure play. AI training and inference consume enormous memory—HBM for GPU clusters, DDR5 for servers, NAND for storage. HBM revenue exploded from $1.87B (2023) to $13.... WATCHLIST Analysis
MUR Murphy Oil Corporation $4.9B $5.2B 0.95 $291M 5 Murphy Oil is a decent E&P company at fair value. WATCHLIST Analysis
NBIS Nebius Group $28.2B $1.7B 6.11 -$3.6B 8 Nebius is a pure-play bet on AI cloud infrastructure demand. The engineering talent (ex-Yandex) is real, the cash position ($2.45B) provides runway, and the market opportunity is enormous. But at 5... WATCHLIST Analysis
NNI Nelnet $4.7B $3.4B 1.27 5 $70.0B-90.0B WATCHLIST Analysis
NTAP NetApp $19.3B -$1.7B 16.70 $1.1B 8 $19.8B $2.0B -- Quality Compounder, Not a 10x WATCHLIST Analysis
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation $4.5T $133.2B 28.66 $58.1B 10 NVIDIA is the canonical AGI beneficiary. AGI's arrival massively increases demand for compute—both training (next-gen models) and inference (billions of AGI-powered applications). NVIDIA's moat is ... WATCHLIST Analysis
NXT Nextracker $18.0B $430M 1.44 $25M 8 $18.0B $1.8B -- Fast-Growing but Expensive WATCHLIST Analysis
OEC Orion Engineered Carbons $264M $370M 0.68 $66M 6 WATCHLIST Analysis
OGE Energy $9.7B $5.0B 1.95 -$60M 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
PEG PSEG (Public Service Enterprise Group) $41.1B $17.0B 2.42 -$105M 9 $39.9B $4.0B PEG (PSEG (Public Service Enterprise Group)) WATCHLIST Analysis
PLTR Palantir $363B $7.4B 49.12 $1.3B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
POR Portland General Electric $6.0B $4.1B 1.46 -$333M 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
PUMP ProPetro Holding Corp $1.6B $773M 1.65 $30M 4 $6.1B $609M WATCHLIST Analysis
PWR Quanta Services $84.9B -$1.2B 9.50 $820M 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
RDN Radian Group $4.4B $4.8B 0.92 -$581M 5 $28.0B-32.0B WATCHLIST Analysis
RIOT Platforms $5.6B $2.7B 1.93 -$257M 6 $30.3B $3.0B WATCHLIST Analysis
SCCO Southern Copper $158B $11.0B 14.36 $3.3B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
SEB Seaboard Corp $4.7B $5.0B 0.91 -$224M 5 WATCHLIST Analysis
SEI Solaris Energy Infrastructure $15.0B $1.5B WATCHLIST Analysis
SLAB Silicon Laboratories $6.7B $695M 6.08 $78M 8 Silicon Labs is a pure-play IoT semiconductor with near-zero debt and recovering revenue. The AGI thesis (edge devices proliferate) is logical. But at 6x book with negative earnings, WATCHLIST Analysis
SND Smart Sand $147M $235M 0.60 $34M 5 WATCHLIST Analysis
SNDK SanDisk Corp $96.7B $4.2B 9.50 $1.3B 0 WATCHLIST Analysis
SNPS Synopsys $82.9B -$11.3B 2.71 $3.1B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
STX Seagate Technology $86.6B -$1.7B 183.81 $1.1B 8 -- Massively Overvalued at $384 PASS Analysis
TLN Talen Energy $14.5B $783M 13.31 $1.1B 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
TSEM Tower Semiconductor $30.0B-78.0B $3.0B-7.8B -- STRONG FUNDAMENTALS, NEEDS CHEAPER ENTRY WATCHLIST Analysis
TXNM Energy $6.4B $3.2B 1.88 -$706M 9 WATCHLIST Analysis
VG Vista Gold / Venture Global $30.3B $10.3B 4.49 -$10.8B 8 Venture Global is a legitimate AGI energy play — LNG is the bridge fuel for data center power demand. The 20-year contracts provide revenue visibility. But $35B debt on $32B market cap is aggressive. 50% WATCHLIST Analysis
VOYA Financial Voya is a well-run financial services compounder doing aggressive buybacks at reasonable prices. WATCHLIST Analysis
VOYA-PB VOYA (Voya Financial) $7.3B $5.1B 0.45 $1.5B 4 Voya is a boring compounder trading near book value with consistent buybacks. The AGI Score of 4 means this is more of a "gets disrupted" story than a "benefits from AGI" story. However, the near-b... WATCHLIST Analysis
VST Vistra Corp $53.7B -$135M 20.43 -$459M 9 PASS Analysis
WTM White Mountains Insurance $5.5B $5.1B 1.00 $1.3B 4 $5.5B $546M WTM is a mini-Berkshire compounding book value at ~15% annually with smart buybacks and a disciplined buy-operate-sell model. WATCHLIST Analysis
XOM ExxonMobil $631B $266.6B 2.44 $12.2B 8 ExxonMobil is a phenomenal cash-flow machine — $52B OCF, $23.6B FCF, 2.6% dividend yield. But at $651B market cap, WATCHLIST Analysis

How the 10x Entry Works

We work backwards:

  1. Bull thesis: What happens if things go right? What does the company look like in 5 years?
  2. Bull market cap: Project bull-case revenue x margins x terminal multiple = what it is worth if the thesis plays out.
  3. Key assumption: What is the ONE thing that must go right? What is our probability estimate?
  4. 10x entry = bull market cap / 10. If we buy at this market cap and the thesis plays out, we get 10x.
  5. Compare to current price: Is the stock anywhere near the 10x entry? If yes, TARGET. If not, WATCHLIST with the 10x entry as our target price.